Grab the raincoat and maybe leave the umbrella at home.
A brewing storm could bring rain, high winds and maybe even some hail to New York City and the suburbs on Monday.
The National Weather Service is forecasting a thunderstorm that could bring potentially damaging winds to the area as a cold front moves in Monday afternoon into the evening, with the worst expected in the mid-to-lower Hudson Valley, meteorologists said.
There’s even a chance – albeit a small, 2 to 5% chance – of an isolated tornado, according to meteorologist John Murray of the NWS New York office.
“With the wind shear and with the instability, there's an environment there that you could have an isolated tornado,” Murray said Sunday afternoon. “But the main threat should be damaging winds.”
What are the chances the storm will be rough? When the NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts a storm, it warns if an area has an “enhanced,” “marginal” or “slight” risk for severe weather.
For Monday’s storm, parts of the Hudson Valley were in the “enhanced” category as of Sunday afternoon. New York City and the western portion of Long Island are in the “marginal” category, while eastern Long Island is in for a “slight” risk.
Should the storm hit hard, the NWS is forecasting the possibility of hail of up to one inch in diameter, Murray said. The potential for severe weather is generally expected between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m., he said.
“Most of the activity is expected to be within that time range,” he said. “The threats for severe weather include damaging winds with wind gusts of at least 58 miles per hour, with large hail also possible.”
The weather should clear by Tuesday, the NWS said, with a sunny and breezy day and a high of 77 degrees and a low of 55 degrees.