A skinny high pressure system along the East Coast will give us a sunny but windy St. Patrick's Day. The temperature should rise above 40 degrees for the first time in a week with an afternoon high around 41-43 degrees. A brisk west wind will make it feel ten degrees colder.
Clear skies won't last long, and this weekend's weather is shaping up to be pretty cruddy. A storm over the Great Lakes is headed our way tonight. As the storm approaches the coast it will spawn a secondary low somewhat to our south. That storm will be our weather maker and it is going to put us close to the rain-snow line.
Precipitation looks like it will start off as a rain/snow mix tomorrow morning, switching over to rain as we warm to the upper 30s in the afternoon. Once temperatures start falling Saturday evening the precipitation will switch back to all snow. Generally, about 1-3 inches of snow are expected Saturday night.
There is a slight chance that a small instability trough might set up as the low passes to our south. If that happens—and these troughs are difficult to predict because they are smaller than what the forecast models can see—the city and the coastlines of Long Island and Connecticut could pick up a couple extra inches of snow. Enjoy that half-marathon Sunday morning!
Any snow should end on Sunday morning as the next high pressure system edges the storm away. Sunday is going to be cloudy and cool with a high near 40. Sunshine and slightly warmer weather returns early next week.