nws_highs_1022.jpgBecause we are a weather geek Gothamist enjoys reading the National Weather Service forecast discussion. The discussion is where the meteorologists at the forecast office give the back story on their predictions. Today's discussion has two interesting tidbits. First, they believe the statistical models that spit out the temperature forecasts are way off. Since it is late October the models are using equations appropriate for the season, and those equations can't handle the abnormally warm weather. The forecasters have adjusted upward the low-70s predicted by the models to a forecast high in the upper-70s.

The other tidbit we picked out is that the computer forecast models have a very poor handle on the weather past tomorrow morning. A low pressure system developing over Arkansas is driving the models mad with distraction or something. The easy part of the forecast is the continued unseasonable warmth through sometime tomorrow afternoon. At some point, possibly as early as tomorrow evening, but possibly not until sometime Wednesday, a cold front will head through the northeastern U.S. Clouds should roll in tomorrow and there will probably be some rain. Most likely Tuesday evening, but maybe Wednesday. Our guess is sooner rather than later.

Around about Thursday the rain and clouds will have gone and the temperature will return to a more seasonable level. High on Thursday in the low-60s. Friday is looking slightly warmer but the really warm weather currently looks to be a thing of the past. The first half of next weekend may be rainy.

Today's forecasted high temperatures from the National Weather Service.