The temperature dipped down to 63 degrees in Central Park this morning, the coldest it has been in two months. The cool start to the day will make it a challenge to keep the record-breaking streak of days reaching 80 degrees going, but the abundant sunshine appears up to the challenge. Look for this afternoon's temperature to top out in the very low 80s.

We may be in the waning days of August, but summer heat is expected to make a big time comeback starting this weekend. All week long the city has been the beneficiary of a high pressure system sitting to our west and giving us a dry northerly breeze. That high will be southeast of the city by tomorrow and that, combined with a big ridge in the jet stream, means a return of heat and humidity. Saturday should warm to the mid 80s and it looks like we will be in the humid upper 80s to low 90s from Sunday through at least next Thursday.

The surface high and the ridge in the jet stream are also going to play a role in the fate of weird Tropical Storm Erika. Erika has been dropping tremendous amounts of rain, a foot in Dominica where at least twelve people died, and is expected to continue doing so as it heads toward Florida.

Tropical Storm Erika's Forecast Path (Weather Underground)

Current forecasts have the storm hitting South Florida early Monday morning. Thanks to high pressure to the north the storm is expected to take a couple of days to move northward through Florida, drenching much of the state with inches and inches of rain. There is a lot of uncertainty as to what the storm will do beyond the middle of next week. Some models have it stalling out near the Florida/Georgia border, others have it going out to sea, while still others have it moving way inland. Some of those solutions could have the storm affect New York, so it is worth paying attention to, but any local impact is at least a week away.