Just a day after he and his family revealed their "Smackdown" dance, Bill de Blasio is basking in the latest Quinnipiac poll numbers that show him with 43% of support from Democratic voters. Bill Thompson is at 20% while Christine Quinn is at 18%.

If de Blasio gets 40% of more of the vote next week, he'll avoid a runoff. The Quinnipiac poll also shows de Blasio with significant support from two groups that Thompson and Quinn were counting on—blacks and women. Here are the numbers: "In today's survey, women likely Democratic primary voters go 44 percent for de Blasio, 19 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Men go 41 percent for de Blasio, 20 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Black voters go 47 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for Quinn. White voters go 42 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Quinn and 16 percent for Thompson."

Quinnipiac Polling Institute's Maurice Carroll said, "Can Public Advocate Bill de Blasio keep his surge going for seven more days? If he does, his first contribution could be to the New York City budget - saving the expense of a run- off election. Dante's big Afro is the campaign image everyone remembers. What a TV commercial! What a boost with everyone who has kids! What a plus in the black community!" Still, the NY Times points out, "Moreover, many New Yorkers have historically waited until the last minute to make up their minds. Conventional wisdom suggests that a number of people are just beginning to tune in to the election, as they transition out of summer and gear up for the start of the school year next week. In one sign of how fluid the race remains, 24 percent of those surveyed by Quinnipiac said there was a 'good chance' that they would change their minds in the next seven days."

Carroll added, "Council Speaker Christine Quinn's collapse could be part of a seeming New York tradition of throwing female candidates under the bandwagon wheels. Well-known women such as Carol Bellamy, Mary Codd and Ruth Messinger all came up short." That seems rather reductive, since voters might also care about stuff like term limits.

Rounding out the poll, Anthony Weiner got 7%, John Liu 4%, Sal Albanese 1% and undecided was at 8%. The numbers also suggest that de Blasio would handily beat Thompson and Quinn in runoffs: "De Blasio over Quinn 66 - 25 percent; De Blasio leads Thompson 56 - 36 percent." In the unlikely Thompson v. Quinn runoff, Thompson would win, 59% to Quinn's 33%.

Tonight is the final mayoral debate before the September 10 primary. It'll be on NBC New York (Channel 4), Telemundo and WOR Radio and livestreamed on WSJ.com and NBCNewYork.com. Expect Quinn and Thompson to go after de Blasio hard.