It's a muggy, gunky day out there but the temperature is nowhere near 90 degrees. Earlier forecasts has some heat arriving early next week but the latest ten-day outlook is coming in much cooler with our next chance of 90 not arriving for at least another week. Over the last 137 years, the first 90-degree day has happened by June 25th 86 percent of the time. Put another way, the first 90-degree day happens this late only once in every seven years. If the ten-day forecast comes true we'll be in once in every twenty years territory for the first 90-degree day.

But, wait, there's more! Those are simple probabilities, based on the bad assumption the climate is not changing. We know the climate is changing, on average the first 90-degree day in New York now happens two weeks sooner than it did a century ago and, globally, last month was the warmest May on record, so the late arrival of summer heat this year is quite unusual.

For this afternoon the disgusting levels of humidity will be accompanied by lots of clouds, a good chance of showers, and a high near 81. As the cold front that's draped across upstate moves ever so slowly toward the city over the next day or so we can expect a round of showers or thunderstorms tonight and a decreasing chance as the day progresses tomorrow. The humidity will be gone by Friday and we should have a fine weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s.