Thunderstorms are breaking out along a cold front that stretches from Buffalo to Atlanta this morning. The strongest storms are currently well south of us in North Carolina and Virginia but there's plenty of rain well up into Pennsylvania and New Jersey. We can expect showers sometime this afternoon and more widespread rain this evening as the front moves eastward. The temperature is going to hold steady in the upper 60s through this afternoon.
Any rain should end overnight and Tuesday should be a sunny and dry, if a bit breezy, day. Not much cool air behind this front either. Tomorrow's high should be around 60, which is just a couple degrees cooler than normal for mid-October. As the high pressure system slowly moves across the region we should see daily highs warm to the mid 60s on Wednesday and maybe up to 70 on Thursday.
Pro tip: You can always tell when the forecast models don't have a good handle on the forecast when the National Weather Service hedges their bets and says things like "Chance of showers... Chance of precipitation 40 percent" for several periods in a row, like they do for Thursday night through Saturday. It is clear that the high will move away late Thursday to be replaced by a storm approaching from the west. What path that storm will follow is not yet clear but the storm could be a real rainmaker if it moves as slow as expected.