As of this early morning rainfall in September was 2.79 inches below normal. It now looks like half or more of that deficit will be made up over the next couple of days. Already, more than three-quarters of an inch has fallen in Central Park's rain gauge. The rain is caused by warm, moist air running over a stationary front just to our south. The resulting easterly winds and thick cloud cover are keeping today's temps in the 60s.

The stationary front will become unstuck and begin moving northward as a warm front this evening. That will move us from steady rain to heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms tonight. If anything the temperature is actually going to rise overnight. Once the warm front passes tomorrow's high will be close to 80 degrees. Gobs of showers and thunderstorms are likely through Tuesday evening.

We'll get a brief respite from the rain on Wednesday as a high pressure system makes a one day visit to the area. Thursday, well, it is too soon to tell what's going to happen on Thursday. A blast of warm, humid tropical air heading up the coast will race against a Midwestern cold front to see which gets here first. If it is the former look for a warm, humid day with a chance of thunderstorms. If it is the latter we are in store for several days of clear skies. Either way the coldest air of the season should be here by the end of the weekend.