It is a truism, but a couple of days have made quite a change on the weather forecast. On Wednesday it looked like we were in for a few days of intermittent rain. That has so far been the case but now it seems we will lose the "off" part of "off-and-on". A low pressure system is expected to move up the coast from the Carolinas today. As it moves northward it is going to drop copious amounts of rain. The city is expected to be on the eastern edge of the heaviest rainfall.
Rain showers should begin after lunchtime today. The rain should be fairly light until this evening. Periods of heavy rain are expected tonight through tomorrow. 1-2 inches of rain is expected to fall on the city by late Saturday. That should make for a wet Pumpkin Festival.
The heaviest rain looks like it will fall in a fairly narrow band over New Jersey. If the storm moves up the coast just slightly further west than predicted we will see very little rain, and if it travels slightly east the city could see 2-3 inches of rain.
Our temperatures will go for a wild ride through the weekend. We should remain in the upper-50s from now until tomorrow morning. A warm front will push tomorrow's high up to 70 degrees. Saturday morning's warm front passage will be quickly followed by a Saturday night cold front. That will lead to much drier conditions on Sunday, which will have a high in the lower-60s, and will lead to much cooler air on Monday. That morning the thermometer may dip below 40 degrees for the first time since mid-April.
Visible GOES satellite image from the University of Wisconsin.