It is hard for Gothamist to imagine a nicer weather day than today. Mostly sunny skies, a slight breeze and a high around 74. With winds out of the south coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler. A big high pressure system is dominating the weather scene over the eastern half of the country. There will be fewer clouds tomorrow and the high will reach into the low-80s. Warmer still on Friday. Friday's high will be close to 90 degrees, making it the warmest day since last August 3rd. The atmosphere may let off a bit of steam with a shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon.

The Memorial Day weekend weather is looking slightly unsettled. The very warm weather continues on Saturday, but Sunday and Monday's temperatures are looking more seasonable. Saturday should be sunny, but a chance of showers or thunderstorms creeps into the picture on Sunday and Monday.

Not only is this week Hurricane Preparedness Week it is also Safe Boating Week. Don't take your rowboat out in a hurricane. Last year was a quiet year for hurricanes hitting land. There were still plenty in the Atlantic but they stayed at sea.

How many tropical cyclones develop in any given year depends mostly on set of atmospheric conditions that vary over several decades, the presence or absence of El Niño/La Niña, and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. An unanticipated El Niño screwed up last year's prediction of greater than normal tropical cyclone activity. No El Niño, or warming of the eastern tropical Pacific, is expected this year, leading the Climate Prediction Center to predict a busier than normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. 13-17 named storms, 7-10 of which may reach hurricane strength and 3-5 of them to become major storms. If you start hearing La Niña mentioned a lot it is more likely that we'll see the high end of those numbers. AccuWeather has also made a seasonal hurricane forecast. It is great fun to read if you are a fan of Derrida or Foucault.

a perfect day by Loladear on Flickr