The upcoming presidential election between John Kerry and George Bush is expected to be close. Gothamist wonders if the election is going to be so tight, might the weather affect the outcome? Two geographers at Indiana State University have studied voting patterns of Indiana and Kentucky and found that minimum temperature and precipitation affect voter turnout. The deterrent effect of cold, rainy weather is large enough that it may influence the outcome of the vote in states where the election is close. Independent voters were more deterred by inclement weather than registered Democrats or Republicans. The authors of the study caution that the weather effect may not hold true for other states.
What will the weather be like on Election Day? It is too soon to know with any confidence (check back in late October), but the current long-range outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for near-normal conditions across the country (EC means equal chance of below or above normal weather). Gothamist is also interested in the Election Day forecast for Hell, as it will need to be below freezing there before one of the candidates gets our vote.
