The ragged march to winter weather continues. Unlike last month, which was mostly warm for days on end, November keeps bouncing between cold and warm episodes as the atmosphere struggles with the transition to a wintertime circulation pattern. Today will be warmer than normal as the morning rain tapers off to a drizzly fog.

The rain's not going away! The tree lighting at Lincoln Center looks to be a soggy occasion. A low pressure system moving up the Ohio Valley will bring us showers, and possibly a late-night thunderstorm. It should be windy with gusts up to 40 miles and hour.

With the center of the storm staying to our west we'll remain in the warm part of the circulation. The temperature will steadily increase until it reaches the mid-50s around midnight. After remaining warm over night there should be a gradual cooling throughout the day tomorrow as the cold front associated with the storm finally gets dragged through town. The cooling should bottom out around 35 degrees on Wednesday morning. Sunny skies will warm that afternoon up to 50. Clouds arrive again on Thursday ahead of another, albeit weaker, storm.

Something we won't see today, Manhattan skyline from sunset park by limonada on Flickr.