A cold front passed through the city yesterday evening, bringing with it the leading edge of a much drier air mass. That air mass is covering much of the country east of the Rockies, which makes for a pretty simple weather forecast. Look for sunny and mild conditions for the next several days. Highs are expected to be in the low 80s through Friday, warming to the mid 80s over the weekend and upper 80s, and perhaps returning to the low 90s, early next week.

While nothing is happening in the immediate future, let's take a quick look back at the remarkably consistent run of warm weather we've had this summer. Today will be the 49th straight day of hitting 80 degrees in Central Park. Since July 1st only eight days have had a cooler than normal high, and only one of those days has been more than five degrees cooler than the average. On the flip side there have been three hot spells, but all were short-lived and only four days since June have been more than ten degrees warmer than average.

The dashed lines on the graph are the forecast highs from the National Weather Service (red), AccuWeather (blue) and Weather Channel (orange). All of them have us getting much warmer than normal by the weekend, with the NWS being the most conservative of the three.

Also of note is how the forecast breaks down after a week. By next Thursday AccuWeather and the Weather Channel differ by ten degrees and don't even agree on whether there will be a warming or cooling trend (we suspect the behavior of Tropical Storm Erika has something to with that). The Weather Service wisely only forecasts daily highs/lows out to a week in advance.