Today Senator Patrick Leahy announced that confirmation hearings for Supreme Court justice nominee Elena Kagan will begin Monday, June 28th. According to the AP, "the schedule should allow the hearings to be completed before senators go home for a weeklong break in early July," thus enabling a vote before they adjourn for August recess. Of course, the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee quickly issued a statement questioning whether the time frame "will be adequate to allow us to meet our important constitutional responsibility to thoroughly review Ms. Kagan's record on behalf of the American people." But assuming Republicans can't postpone this indefinitely, what are Kagan's odds?

According to Daily Intel's Dan Amira, pretty damn good. After assuming that all the Democrats will vote for Kagan, and assuming all the Republicans who voted against her solicitor-general nomination will do so again, he's gone through and closely examined the seven Republicans who voted for her last time, plus Senator Scott Brown (who wasn't in the Senate yet) and Senator Lindsey Graham, who didn't vote on solicitor-general but did vote for Sotomayor. Amira's final vote prediction is a slam dunk 65-35; review it carefully and place your bets.