The great uncertainty over where Hurricane Joaquin was headed has been greatly reduced. While there is still some uncertainty, it now looks like the storm will pass out to sea and mostly miss the East Coast. Forecasting what would happen in this case is very similar to predicting the outcome of a baseball series. If one team has much better hitting and pitching than the other it is usually a safe bet that the better team will win most of the time, but the bet becomes difficult when the teams are evenly matched.

For much of this week Joaquin was up against evenly matched opponents, a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic and a high pressure system over Canada. Early indications were that the Atlantic ridge would push the storm closer to the coast, but that ridge has been weakening and Joaquin is now headed toward the weak spot.

While we don't have to worry about a direct hit from Joaquin, there is still a lot of weather coming at us over the next few days. As the Canadian high approaches the pressure gradient will increase and that's going to give us strong northeasterly winds through Sunday. High tides will be a bit higher than normal, possibly leading to some minor coastal flooding, especially along the Jersey shore and the north shore of Long Island.

Even though today is the coldest day in months there is plenty of tropical moisture streaming overhead and rain is likely through tomorrow morning. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 40s to low 50s through Saturday. The wind, rain, and cold weather will gradually begin to ease up as the day progresses on Sunday and we could see the sun again on Monday, when the high should be close to the early October normal of the high 60s.