In case you are curled up in front of your air conditioner and blocked out reality, the air is thick with humidity today. As we write this the air temperature is 75 degrees and the dew point has climbed to 70 degrees in Central Park. This morning's weather balloon sounding shows the humidity extends upwards of three miles, which translates into about two inches of precipitable water.
With that much moisture in the atmosphere it will only take the slightest disturbance to get some convective activity started so that rain can fall. We've got three today: a surface trough moving across the state, a trough in the jet stream just to our west, and a likely sea breeze this afternoon. So get ready for a lot of rain this afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is in effect from noon today through Wednesday morning.
The only difference between today's forecast and tomorrow's are the instigators. Gone are the sea breeze and surface trough, only to be replaced by a slow-moving cold front on the ground and the same old trough in the jet stream above. The front looks like it will take an entire day to traverse the state from Buffalo in the morning to Long Island early Wednesday morning. The result will be the same. Look for another round of showers and thunderstorms, some with the potential to produce heavy rains, throughout the day on Tuesday. Tomorrow's high, like today's, will be in the mid 80s.
Some rain and clouds may linger after the cold front passes on Wednesday morning, but we could see clear skies by that evening. The sun will be back in force on Thursday and Friday, with slightly cooler than normal highs in the low 80s expected both days as the thing that isn't a polar vortex moves eastward. Early indications are that cloudy, perhaps even rainy, conditions will return for the weekend.