Today's weather will be a near duplicate of yesterday's with mostly sunny skies and highs ranging anywhere from the upper 70s across Long Island to mid 80s in the city, and possibly the upper 80s in northeastern New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley. The big variation in temperatures is due to the expected sea breeze. Ocean temperatures are still in the 60s so any onshore flow will have a cooling effect.

After several days of uneventful weather we could see some activity tonight as first an upper level disturbance and then a cold front move through the region. The shortwave should stay north of the city, and it doesn't have much moisture to work with, but there is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms overnight. The front that will follow is expected to slow to a crawl east of the city. That will cut us off from any cooling sea breeze, resulting in a high in the upper 80s under a mix of sun and clouds. Cooler weather behind the front arrives for Wednesday when the high will be in the lower 80s.

A much better chance of rain is possible on Thursday. A storm is expected to spawn off the old cold front and pass to our south. Where the rain will fall depends on the exact path of the storm. Earlier forecasts were keeping the bulk of the rain just south of the city but more recent forecasts are putting us closer to the "steady rain all day" zone. Look for a warm dry weekend to follow the storm.