Our long stretch of warm weather is about to come to an end. Before it does we should have a very pleasant afternoon with a high close to 70 degrees in the city and northern New Jersey. A sea breeze is likely to keep temperatures to the lower 60s across Long Island and close to the shore.
Today's warmth and fair skies is due to a large high pressure system that has been slowly moving southward over the region the past few days. Later tonight that system will be challenged by a warm front. How those two will interact is making for a very challenging forecast. It looks like the warm front will be close enough to put the city on the eastern edge of some thunderstorm activity. Look for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm from late tonight through the day tomorrow.
The warm front is not expected to actually reach the city. Instead it will stall out just to our south and set up a tremendous temperature gradient tomorrow in which the city's high in the mid 60s will be twenty degrees warmer than Albany, but twenty degrees cooler than parts of southern New Jersey.
A cold front is expected to break through late Tuesday, giving us a cool but sunny Wednesday with a high only in the lower 60s. A late-week storm passing to the south will probably give us some rain on Thursday before giving way to a weekend of clear skies and highs in the lower to mid 60s.