It's getting dry

The stretch of absolutely beautiful summer weather hits three days today and a fourth day is expected tomorrow. With morning lows in the upper 60s and afternoon highs in the mid 80s, we are enjoying a prolonged stretch of almost exactly average daily temperatures. Enjoy it while you can, because the heat and humidity will return soon—and early indications are it will be returning with a vengeance.

A slow moving high pressure system over the Midwest continues to give us a comfortable northwesterly breeze, but that will start to change late Saturday once that system finally passes well southeast of the city. Winds will start coming out of the south tomorrow afternoon and there will be an increasing chance of showers or thunderstorms as we move into Sunday.

The chance of rain will diminish on Monday as a broad upper level ridge sets up over the eastern half of the country. That ridge will allow the temperatures to climb to the upper 80s early in the week and possibly return to the lower to mid 90s next Wednesday and Thursday and staying in the upper 80s beyond that.

After a slightly wetter than normal June the city is experiencing a dry July. Rainfall this month is only half of average and after today the precipitation deficit in Central Park will be at its greatest level for the year. Don't worry just yet, the reservoir levels upstate are healthily above normal levels for late July.