It is looking more and more like Tropical Storm Hermine will pay us a visit over the Labor Day weekend. It is still too soon to tell how friendly that visit will be but high winds, coastal flooding and at least some rain are possible anywhere from the Jersey Shore out to the eastern end of Long Island.
Hermine is in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today and should briefly reach hurricane strength before making landfall somewhere near Tallahassee tonight. After making landfall it looks like the storm will stay just inland and move parallel to the coast until it returns to the open ocean north of the Outer Banks on Saturday.
Forecasting the storm's location beyond the Outer Banks is currently much less predictable. We should escape with a fairly decent Saturday, with the morning sun giving way to cloudy skies as the storm draws near. Later in the day on Saturday it looks like Hermine will get squeezed between upper level ridges to the east and west of us. That's not great as it means the storm will just wobble about somewhere between Montauk and Cape May, producing a long period of northeasterly winds from Saturday night into Monday. If that happens it could lead to rough surf, extensive coastal flooding, and beach erosion over the weekend.
On a more positive note, early indications are that the worst of the rain will stay offshore. Sunday is looking wet and cool with a high barely in the 70s, but we probably won't be getting the inches upon inches that are expected to fall further to the south.