The first six days of March have seen the temperature drop in Central Park from a high of 70 degrees on the 1st to a low of 14 yesterday morning. Sunday's frigid start is tied with January 9th as the temperature roller coaster action this week as the Arctic air mass moves offshore and the wind starts coming from a more southerly direction. Today will warm to the lower 40s, which is much closer to average for early March, and we'll be back to the mid 50s tomorrow.

To get up to the mid 50s in early March usually means a warm front is approaching. Rain typically falls ahead of a warm front and tomorrow is no exception—look for a cloudy day with a chance of rain during the day and a much better chance of rain by evening. A cold front will pass early Wednesday morning, quickly ending the rain.

It will take several hours for the cold air behind the front to get here so look for an early afternoon high in the lower 60s. After that it's another steep drop on the temperature roller coaster. Thursday should be fairly pleasant with a high in the upper 40s, Friday could be a rainy, snowy mess, potentially dragging into a cold, snowy weekend with highs only in the 30s.