The prolonged period of mostly cool weather, through yesterday May was three degrees cooler than average, has quickly come to an end. The upper level low and its pool of cold air has moved eastward, replaced by a ridge in the jet stream stacked above a high pressure system on the ground. That combination will give us plenty of warm, dry weather the next couple of days. Today's high reached the upper 80s in the city, mid 80s to the east and maybe there may have even been a few 90 degree readings in northern New Jersey away from the cooling influence of the Atlantic. Tomorrow looks to be slightly cooler, with an outside chance of evening showers or thunderstorms thanks to the passing of a weak cold front.
That cold front is expected to reverse direction and head back our way as a warm front on Friday. Despite the warm front's arrival Friday should actually be cooler, with a high in the lower 80s, thanks to increased humidty and cloud cover. Once again, a stray rain shower or thunderstorm could pop up. Saturday will again be humid with a high in the mid 80s.
The front is expected to once again reverse direction and sink southward as a cold front on Sunday. Currently, that front is expected to stall out nearby, making for a low-confidence forecast but let's go with a high in the low 80s. Cloud cover on Monday will probably keep the high in the mid 70s, which is about normal for Memorial Day.
Hurricane season officially starts a week from today, but it may get off to an unofficial early start. The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance northeast of the Bahamas this afternoon. Not much is happening right now but conditions are expected to become more favorable for storm development toward the end of the week. Some of the tropical moisture from that system could make it this far north by Tuesday but that's far from certain.