Believe it or not a whole week of winter weather is upon us. It started yesterday with the first day of measurable snowfall of the season. Despite the Post saying there was no snow, 0.4 inches was observed in Central Park. It was like Christmas in Hollis as nearly an inch of snow fell. More snow, including a potentially large storm, could develop later in the week, but before that happens we have to put up with some cold weather.
A cold air mass has arrived behind the snow and it is going to stay cold all week long. Today and tomorrow will be the worst of the cold snap as highs will only reach the upper 20s both days. The addition of a strong westerly wind as high pressure moves in following yesterday's cold front means it will feel closer to ten degrees outside. By the middle of the week the Arctic high responsible for the cold weather will be centered near the city, calming the winds down and allowing the temperature to climb into the mid 30s on Wednesday and Thursday under mostly sunny skies. For you climate trivia buffs, the annual temperature curve starts its upward climb on Thursday.
The 800-pound gorilla in the forecast is a nor'easter that is going to develop toward the end of the week. What is clear is that a strong storm will develop off the Carolinas on Friday and move up the coast through Saturday. As the storm draws closer it will push moisture laden air up over the cold air mass that will be sitting on top of the region. Whether that produces snow, rain or nothing depends on the exact path of the storm and the forecast models have yet to settle down on that path. AccuWeather is going with 8-12 inches of snow and the Weather Channel with 4-8 inches.
The National Weather Service hasn't yet forecast a snowfall amount, which is probably the adult thing to do given the uncertainty, but they seem to be leaning toward less snow than the other forecasts.