As you may have heard, our weather for the next few days is going to be strongly influenced by Hurricane Jose. Jose (shouldn't it be José?) is expected to pass a hundred or so miles southeast of Montauk tomorrow night as a tropical storm. That's close enough for sustained strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain for much of Long Island and some potentially heavy rain and mild flooding closer to the city.

For this afternoon we will see overcast skies and maybe light rain or showers as the leading edge of the storm throws a lot of humid tropical air up over a weak high pressure system to our west. Showers are more likely from later tonight through Wednesday, with the best chance overnight on Tuesday. Look for the wind to pick up to 20-25 mph as the day progresses tomorrow and remain strong through Wednesday. Keep in mind that if Jose wobbles slightly further west than currently expected it will bring much worse weather conditions to the city.

Normally, when a hurricane or tropical storm gets this far north they get caught up in the westerlies and get dragged out to the middle of the Atlantic. That does not look like the case with Jose, as it is expected to drift aimlessly not all that far east of here. If that is the case, rough surf conditions could last into next weekend, and it adds to the uncertainty of the extended forecast. For now the end of the week looks like it will be warm and humid, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s from Thursday through Sunday.