It was too good to be true. The dream/forecast that temperatures would rise into the 60s every day this week has fallen by the wayside, taken out by a back door cold front that is sneaking down from New England today. Before the front arrives late this afternoon we should have a beautiful day with lots of sun and a high in the lower to mid 60s. There is no moisture associated with this front, so sunny skies will return tomorrow but it is going to be brisk with a high only near 50 degrees.

This little front will keep New York and New England from experiencing the very warm weather that the rest of the eastern half of the country will have tomorrow. The second classic early winter storm in a week is crossing the country, bringing warmth and thunderstorms ahead of it and cold, snowy conditions behind it. We'll see the warm, rainy bits of the storm beginning on Wednesday and especially on Thursday, when there could be heavy downpours and a high in the mid 60s. The cold, snowy portion will miss us but the weekend will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s on Friday and lower to mid 50s on Saturday and Sunday.

Data from the National Weather Service

Whatever rain we get this week will be much appreciated. Through yesterday, just under 35 inches of precipitation has fallen on Central Park this year. That's nine inches less than normal. Here on the East Coast we typically see rain every few days, as storms like to pass nearby, either along the coast or through the St. Lawrence Valley. That hasn't been the pattern this year as coastal storms have passed a bit too far east and Midwestern storms have tracked further north than normal.

Instead, as you can see in the graph we've been in a pattern in which a week or two of absolutely dry weather gets interrupted by a single storm that doesn't produce enough rain to cover the accumulating deficit. Thankfully, upstate reservoir levels are still slightly higher than normal.