Hello and welcome to what may well be your first day back in action since Thursday's big turkey-fest, and maybe you are still feeling somewhat... sluggish. Less on top of your game than pinned under its pulverizing weight. Maybe, as you scrambled to gather all your professional effects this morning and get out the door close to on-time, you forgot to triangulate forecasts. Or, maybe you did actually check your weather apps, but could swear the day's projections made no mention of an absolute shitshow gathering on the horizon. Or! Maybe you drove home on the Taconic State Parkway last night, experienced firsthand the alleged near-whiteout conditions my sources described as a real nightmare gauntlet and gleaned that today might get gnarly. Whether you are ready or not, here comes the big one: Our first winter storm of the season, slated to descend on NYC this afternoon and linger until tomorrow morning. As local meteorologist Bill de Blasio ominously predicted on WCBS 880 a little bit ago, "It’s going to be a sloppy one."

Not entirely surprising, as it's been precipitating in all kinds of creative and soggy ways for about the past 24 hours, perhaps longer, who could say? Yesterday, your windows, and possibly also your person, were pelted with... sleet? Freezing rain? An uncommonly sharp mist? Whatever distinction you want to draw there, I think we can all agree that the frigid temps and invasive breezes made for an all-around unwelcome outdoor situation, and although it's warmed up a bit — the National Weather Service places current temps around 38 degrees, which feels more like 30 — you can expect conditions to devolve as the winds pick up and precipitation potential climbs. Hell, it's already spitting a snow-rain hybrid out there, and we're only just getting started.

Wind chill could drag the day's low (~32 degrees around 8 p.m.) all the way down to 21 degrees... or 11 degrees, if you trust AccuWeather over the NWS. Meanwhile, gusts may escalate the technically moderate breeze to frankly disrespectful winds that shuffle the tree branches and induce your hair to dance erratically, in the manner of a windsock man guarding a car wash. But arguably, that's not even the worst of it. Brace for occasional showers from now until about 6 p.m., and keep in mind that — due to the aforementioned tundra temps — sidewalks could ice over and subway stairs could transform into death traps. Factor in the possible snow fits that may commence around 1 p.m., and, well, today really would've been a good day to feign turkey fever, huh?

On the bright side, the snow should taper off overnight, with projected accumulation dropping to .8 inches between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. Before that happens, however, we may see two to four inches pile up, and you know what that means.

Ready the salt spreaders.

Suspend alternate-side parking.

Prepare the plows, set all the sirens blaring, it's time to initiate the FULL SNOW RESPONSE hell yes.

The Office of Emergency Management has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 11 a.m. Monday through 7 a.m. Tuesday. The Sanitation Department will deploy 705 salt spreaders across the five boroughs, plus 1500 plows once we've hit the two-inch mark. The East River Bridges and Times Square will merit special, defensive attention. Parks Department Cutters are already muscling up to obliterate any downed trees, and city officials are, allegedly, working closely with the NWS to keep pace with The Weather's mercurial moods. Allow de Blasio to explain:

Right now, the day is looking good, but when we get later on that snow could come earlier than we think it can come, in bigger amounts than we think. So we’re going to be ready, our teams are out there from sanitation, they are doing a great job salting the streets, they’ll be ready to plow as it starts to accumulate. But we’re going to be ready for something bigger than projected, that’s one of great lessons we’ve learned from the past. You just you just never know what Mother Nature really decides do.

Ah, the past. You remember the past? Specifically November 15th of last year, when the forecast called for two-ish inches of wintry mix but the sky unleashed a still-objectively-manageable six inches on the city, thereby driving municipal operations entirely off the rails? The small snowpocalypse that stranded children in school buses, strained Penn Station basically to its breaking point, and prompted city officials to announce a zany new protocol that potentially involved sending spreaders against the flow of traffic and salting the streets even when the forecast called for "little to no snow"? One can never be too prepared, you see, and the city will not be fooled again! (Unless, of course, it is.)

To that end, you must do your bit if you want to get to the other side of this. (And right now, it does appear that the rest of the week will be markedly less brutal, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.) If you can help it, don't drive today! Instead, swarm our beleaguered public transit system, and prepare your bodies for what we can assume will be extra long waits and sardine-tin-style crush loading. Your fellow passengers and their enormous puffy coats could prove your only cozy respite this evening: Governor Andrew Cuomo has declared a state of emergency in Ulster and Schenectady, which has already been buried in 18 inches and could see four to six more before all of this is over. Who knows, you could be next!