The atmosphere is very busy today. So busy it won't take my phone calls, so I'm just going to guess at a forecast. An upper-level trough with a smaller shortwave trough embedded within will move across the region this afternoon. Trailing behind is a slow-moving cold front that's currently over the Great Lakes. Combine those disturbances with an air mass that is nearly saturated from the ground up to 7500 feet or so and you have the potential for lots and lots of rain during peak afternoon heating hours. The main line of storms currently stretches from Massena at the tippy-top of the state, across central Pennsylvania and stretching way down into Kentucky. Before that line gets here we are seeing localized showers and thunderstorms developing. Watch out for flash flooding!
The storms that do form will quickly weaken as the sun sets this evening. Don't worry, there's a good chance for more showers, thunderstorms and heavy rain tomorrow as that slow cold front gets closer. Depending on how slowly the phlegmatic front moves there may be a third round of storms on Friday. Highs tomorrow and Friday should be near 85 under mostly cloudy skies.
The weekend forecast is tricky. Forecasters are leaning toward slightly cooler and drier weather as a high pressure system hugs the ground. The difficulty lies in what will happen above. There's some indication a cut-off low will form, which could generate afternoon clouds and showers but as of now neither the National Weather Service nor the Weather Channel appear to have a good grip on how that will play out. For now let's look for highs in the mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday and not worry about any rainfall just yet.