While it's not a run-off proof number, the latest Marist mayoral poll shows that Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's late surge is holding strong: He's got 36%, while City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Biill Thompson each have 20%.
Rounding out the poll are Anthony Weiner with 7%, John Liu with 5%, and Sal Albanese and Erick Salgado, both with 1%. Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says, "Bill de Blasio leads Quinn among women and Thompson among African Americans. His campaign is being fueled by Democratic voters’ dislike of extending term limits, the policy of stop and frisk, and of course, the Dante effect." Here are some other Marist notes:
De Blasio does better among likely Democratic voters who are both white and liberal — 43%. He does well among likely Democratic voters in Brooklyn — 40% — and Manhattan — 40%. De Blasio also does well among likely Democratic voters who are African American — 39%, men — 38%, voters 45 or older — 38%, or those who consider themselves to be strong Democrats — 38%.
Although Quinn does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters, she does well among those who live in Manhattan — 30%, those who are Jewish — 29%, or those who are white Catholics — 26%.
Thompson also does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters. However, he does well among those who live in the Bronx — 26%, those who live in union households — 26%, and those who are African American — 25%.
A candidate needs 40% of the primary vote to avoid a runoff. Analysts say that in runoff scenarios with de Blasio v. Quinn and de Blasio v. Thompson, de Blasio wins both.
The poll ended on Friday night—before Mayor Bloomberg's comments that de Blasio's campaign was racist for showing his mixed-race family. Naturally, de Blasio's campaign is having a good time with that.