With the age of neverending rain upon us, New York has gone from disturbingly dry to excessively wet within the space of a few hours. There was a widespread area of 1-2 inches of rain overnight, with some locations west of the Hudson receiving three or more inches. The promise of much, much more rain over the next week has caused NYC's Flash Flood Emergency Plan to be activated.
The big concern this weekend is Hurricane Joaquin. Potential landfall is still several days away, and there is still a great amount of uncertainty in forecasting the hurricane's path. The latest bulletin from National Hurricane Center says "Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are complex and the model guidance is inconsistent."
Despite that uncertainty Joaquin is expected to be a powerful storm and needs to be taken seriously. Many of the current forecasts have the storm making landfall somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast, that is close enough to NYC to be concerned about torrential rains, coastal flooding and high winds. Flooding, in particular, could be extensive anywhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts. Now would be a good time to review your household emergency plans and check to see if you're in the evacuation zone.
Between now and if/when Hurricane Joaquin potentially arrives on the scene we can expect some rainy, windy raw weather. The cold front passed through the city earlier this afternoon and will stall out not too far east of here. The temperature is already dropping and will continue to do so until it hits the mid 50s tomorrow morning. There it will stay until Saturday when the stalled front gets pushed back toward us. Expect rain pretty much anytime for the next several days and look for it to be pretty windy on Thursday and Friday.