Today is well on its way to becoming the third straight 80 degree day in Central Park. The last time that happened was exactly eight months ago. This afternoon is likely to be the warmest of the three days, topping out at a July-like 84 degrees. The National Weather Service says there is a slight chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, but that seems to be a CYA-type forecast rather than the real deal.

Rain is much more likely late tonight, before a cold front passes through the region. The front's passage should stop the rain but it will also herald the return of the cool easterly wind. Tomorrow is the day when the normal high in the annual temperature curve reaches 70 degrees, but we are likely to fall short of that by a degree or two. Wednesday will be even cooler, with a high in the lower 60s, and possibly wetter as tonight's cold front reverses direction and heads northward as a warm front. Assuming that front passes late Wednesday we should be in for a warmer Thursday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For most of this week the jet stream and the surface weather will be working at cross-purposes. While the fronts near the ground want to produce rain showers, a ridge in the jet stream over the eastern half of the country is putting a damper on convective activity. Not so on Friday! The models have the ridge moving eastward, putting us under the leading edge of a trough in the jet stream. Combine that with an approaching cold front and the potential exists for gobs of rain on Friday or possibly Saturday. The exact timing is uncertain but it is something to watch out for.