The weather is working against itself today as we've got a big high pressure system on the ground and a shortwave moving through the jet stream above. That shortwave would like nothing better than to get the atmosphere churning and create a few showers this afternoon, but the dry air near the ground probably won't let that happen. Sprinkles aren't out of the question but we're more likely to see a mix of sun and happy fluffy clouds and a high temperature only in the upper 50s. Clear skies and northerly winds tonight will let the temperature plunge into the lower 40s tonight. Tomorrow morning's record low of 40 degrees set in 1878 should be safe, but spots in northwestern New Jersey and the mid-Hudson Valley, where the growing season has started, might get a hard freeze.

Westerly winds tomorrow mean that Tuesday won't be as cool as today. Look for the high to nudge up against 65 degrees. That's still a good five degrees cooler than normal but a temperature turnaround is in sight.

A cold front is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Ahead of the front we'll have the standard issue chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday's high is again expected to be in the mid 60s. Following the front Thursday and Friday look like they will warm to the mid 70s.