For two quarters in last season's AFC Championship Game, the Jets had the Colts on the ropes. But New York squandered an 11-point lead and will need to beat Indianapolis in this week's AFC wild-card playoff if it wants to get a chance to go one step further this season.

Despite all of Rex Ryan's talk, the Jets have the look of a good but not great team. They needed late-game magic against the Lions, Browns and Texans and got smoked when they played at the Patriots with the AFC East title in the balance. Their offense may have enjoyed a more even season than it did last year, but their defense has regressed from the absolute dominance it displayed last season.

Despite Peyton Manning, the Colts have had the look of a good but not great team this season. Injuries have forced them to adapt on the fly, but the team did peak at the right time and took the AFC South.

The Colts are imperfect, but so are the Jets. New York has a dangerous ground game with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene but Indianapolis has stopped some dominant running backs of late. Darrelle Revis can shadow Reggie Wayne, but can the Jets contain Pierre Garcon and Jacob Tamme? Austin Collie, who torched the Jets last season, will not play. The Jets have the talent to beat the Colts -- the betting line suggests this game would be even on a neutral field. At the end of the day, though, does anyone want to pick against Manning?