How is everyone enjoying winter? In the space of little more than a day we've gone from mid-October temperatures down to weather more typical of mid-December. Mid-December is where we are going to stay for the foreseeable future as there is no sign of significant warming over the next week or two. This afternoon's high will only reach the lower 40s as incoming Arctic air overwhelms the sun's feeble attempt to warm us up. A strong northwesterly breeze will make it feel a good ten degrees colder than that.

Tonight is our first real chance of dipping down to the freezing point in the city so we updated our first freeze probability graph. Over the past 43 years the date of the first freeze has ranged from October 20th to December 22nd and in half the years it happens by Nov 18th or 19th. That is somewhat misleading. In recent years the average date of first freeze has been happening two weeks later than it was in the 1970s.

Saturday will start cold and stay cold. Look for a high in the lower 40s and wind chill values ranging from 25-35 degrees. We should a slight warm up on Sunday and Monday as a low pressure system currently brewing over the Gulf of Mexico races up the Atlantic Coast. Depending on the storm's timing it could bring rain on Monday and snow Monday night. Another shot of cold air will arrive behind that storm and we'll be lucky to reach 40 degrees next Tuesday and Wednesday.