It must be nutty at the Mayor's posh campaign headquarters, because both a NY1/Newsday poll and a Marist/WNBC poll show Fernando Ferrer leading by considerable amounts. The NY1/Newsday poll shows by a Ferrer lead of 14 points (49% to Bloomberg's 35%), and the WNBC Marist poll has Ferrer with 49% and Bloomberg at 42%. Mayor Bloomberg would beat all other Democratic challengers after Ferrer; Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields leads the others. However, while Ferrer's numbers look great against Bloomberg, he still doesn't have the 40% of the Democratic vote that would eliminate the need for a Democratic runoff: According to NY1, he's got 35%, with Fields at 15%, Weiner 8%, and Miller 7%. Damn, Weiner and Miller are really low. Anyway, Fields' campaign says that Fields would probably win a runoff, and Ferrer may suffer some backlash from his remarks about Amadou Diallo's death.

As for the incumbent, many point to the Mayor's super-involvement with the West Side as making him vulnerable. The Mayor's spokesperson told NY1 that Bloomberg was remaining positive. Well, of course Bloomberg isn't going to broadcast that he ripped everyone a new one or something. Spokesman Stu Loeser said, "Because of Mike Bloomberg, the economy is growing, crime is at historic lows, and we've started reforming the schools – the very issues this poll says voters value most." So we'll be hearing more about the ongoing crime reduction and school reform (thought results are tepid). Gothamist thinks if the Mayor could solve the MTA crisis, he'd win handily, but that'd take a miracle.

Do you know who you're voting for this fall? And for more city politics, go to The Politicker and Gotham Gazette.