Listen, you may have exited your apartment this morning to find your car buried under a literal trash mountain, but keep those complaints to yourself because New York City is sitting pretty. We appear to have escaped the attention of the brutal hurricane that absolutely wrecked the Bahamas before clipping the Florida coast. Hurricane Dorian is now en route to the Carolinas, where meteorologists expect it will be merciless; by contrast, New Yorkers can expect high winds, big waves, and maybe some rain. This forecast may waylay any seafaring aspirations you had for the weekend, but really, these meteorological potatoes are tiny.
According to Tim Morrin, observation program leader for National Weather Service New York, you "really can’t even call it an indirect impact," this relatively piddling weather system heading our way. "Depending on the exact size and the western extent of the hurricane, there could be some fringe effects" here in NYC, Morrin told Gothamist, but Dorian's track has been very consistent: If it stays the projected course, it won't come closer than 200 or 250 miles offshore. For us, that may mean "a little bit of gustiness to the wind," Morrin predicted, and maybe a couple rain showers Friday night — "certainly not hurricane conditions," but "possibly conditions approaching a tropical storm" near Montauk and all the way up to Cape Cod. Possibly!
The NWS forecast for the New York area currently has things getting wavy on Friday, but until then, we're looking at humid, partly cloudy weather in the mid-60s to high 70s. We may see thunderstorms this afternoon — kickoff at 3 p.m. with prime time continuing till 9, be sure to block it off — and those could bring rogue gusts reaching maybe 24 mph at peak windspeed, but truly this is child's play. Hurricane-force winds clock in at 74 mph at the lowest end, while the worst of the bluster over here on the Isle of Rats may not exceed the the Beaufort wind scale's threshold for "strong breeze."
Starting Friday morning, winds may begin to ratchet up in annoyance, gusting in the 28 mph to 37 mph arena even into the nighttimes, while sustained surface winds hover in the low-20-mph ballpark. No one is saying that's not gross, especially coupled with relative humidity escalating from 66 to 86 percent, but it's certainly tame by comparison to a category 2 hurricane. Friday and Friday night could bring scattered showers, but the winds look likely to die down as we move into Saturday. Near the city, according to Morrin, our biggest concerns will be "very rough surf, dangerous rip currents, [and] beach erosion along our coastlines." Our arguably underprepared borders likely won't be breached by indomitable storm surge this time around — not even on the parts of Long Island (again, Montauk) where wind speeds could exceed 40 mph, Morrin said.
By Saturday, temps may be back in the high 70s, and humidity could even dip back down below 40 percent. Hell, the sun may even make an appearance. Sunday could bring highs in the 70s, but really it seems a little premature to be thinking about all that right now.
In the meantime, Hurricane Dorian was charting maximum sustained winds of 105 mph as of 11 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center, and moving up the Eastern Coast from Florida. Georgia and the Carolinas face "destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges" as it encroaches, after spending a deadly two days drowning the Bahamas. As the hurricane continues on its path, here's a guide to sending aid.