Last month was the fifth warmest July, and sixth warmest month, recorded in Central Park since weather observations began more than 140 years ago. Fourteen days reached at least 90 degrees, two reached 100, and those latter two were both record breakers. Five out of the seven months this year have been warmer than normal, including the last four months straight.
The warmer than normal weather trend continues into August. A warm and humid air mass to the south of the city will bring today's high to the lower 90s. Just to the north is a weak low pressure trough. That trough will act like a flash mob for convection as it moves southeastward. There's already a couple of rain cells to the northwest, where more severe weather is not needed. It will take a few hours but we could see showers and thunderstorms, and possibly hail, later this afternoon. The humidity will be lower tomorrow, but the temperature will again approach 90 degrees.
The Weather Channel is crazily predicting that Wednesday's high hit the mid 80s. Why they differ is interesting. The forecast models have an upper-level disturbance moving through the area on Wednesday. Trailing along with that disturbance is a critter known as a mesoscale convective complex. The Weather Channel has that beast passing over the city, bringing clouds and plenty of rain to keep things cool. The NWS says complex will pass south of us, allowing for sun and warming. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures should round out the week.
