wv_0413.JPGHas anyone other than Gothamist noticed that the temperature forecasts have not been too accurate lately? All the major forecasters underestimated our high temperatures in their morning forecasts by 5-10 degrees several times (Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday, and yesterday) in the past week.

Maybe they weren't used to the warm weather. Until yesterday we had eight consecutive days with temperatures above normal. Those eight warm days brought our temperature for the year back close to average. How does Gothamist know this? We've made another graph! The graph can be read as a balance sheet –everything above the zero line is a profit (excess heat), everything below is a loss (heat deficit). When the line slopes upward we're in a warm spell, downward and we're in a cold spell. Through yesterday the average temperature for the year in Central Park is but 0.2 F below normal.

As an enormous polar high pressure system moves into our area tomorrow it is going to cool a bit for the next couple of days. A jacket and gloves are in order for Friday and Saturday nights. As the high moves offshore it will warm up on Sunday. With no rain in sight the fire danger increases.