It's a tie! Last month managed to tie 1947 as the warmest October in the 150+ years of Central Park weather observations. The last time the park had a record warm month was February 2002. The difference between sharing the record warm October with 1947 and breaking that old record was as small as could be. If the high or low temperature for any day last month been one degree higher October 2007 would have held the record outright.

In our obsession with a record warm October over the past week Gothamist neglected to mention Hurricane Noel. The death toll from Noel is at least a hundred people in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Noel has turned northward and will be close enough to affect the East Coast starting tonight. The storm will lose it's tropical characteristics during the day today yet will still remain a potent system. While Noel will stay to our east but the city will definitely see high winds and surf, probably coastal flooding, and possibly periods of heavy rain. The local National Weather Service office has a cartographic crapload of colorful advisories on their website.

So, today should be pleasant, with a high in the upper-50s. Things fall apart late tonight. The wind is expected pick up to a steady 20-30 miles an hour, with gusts up to 45-50mph. Noel looks like she will stay far enough east that we will only see a 50/50 chance of rain. Still, if it does rain expect it to be of the heavy downpour variety.

Northerly winds, clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the 40s on Saturday. All in all, pretty awful conditions for the U.S. Men's Olympic Marathon Trials in Central Park. The weather should improve greatly in time for Sunday's NYC Marathon. We can expect a sunny Sunday. The day will start out in the low-40s and wind up in the upper-50s. Good luck to all the runners!

Enhanced Infrared Satellite image of Hurricane Noel from the National Weather Service.