When do you think the latest date is that really cold weather can strike New York? That depends on how you define "really cold" but this graph of every January through March daily temperature since 1971 has the answer. The squiggly line is the mean and that bottomed out a couple weeks ago at 29 degrees. Following the January Thaw, the curve reaches another nadir on February 5th before beginning a slow increase. We should dutifully point out that the thaw, like all the day-to-day squiggles in the line, is not statistically significant -just look at that variability. From a climate perspective there is still a chance of cold weather, but the odds are against us having a brutally cold week like what happened in 1979.
Sunny And Mild Weather For The Giants' Ticker Tape Parade
Yet Another Warm Winter Day
Let's start February by taking a quick look back at last month's weather. It won't come as any surprise to learn that January was warm. Just how warm is anybody's guess! The weather instruments located near Belvedere Castle suffered a power failure over the weekend so the Weather Service missed out on several days worth of temperature readings. Looking at surrounding stations our best guess is that Central Park was five degrees warmer than normal. While that's not warm enough to crack January's top ten it is the eleventh straight month that's been warmer than average.
It's The January Thaw!
It's a typical Spring day today. Look at that snow melt! Lots of rain, perhaps a thunderstorm, a flood advisory for the city and surrounding counties, and a high near 60 this afternoon. That's pretty normal for this time of year, if this time of year were mid-April. For late January it's about twenty degrees warmer than average. Can there by a January thaw if there is no January freeze?
Boring Winter Weather Continues To Be Boring
Is this the most disappointing winter ever? The season's almost half over and there has yet to be a deep freeze or a significant snow storm. Saturday's snow was cute but hardly memorable. Aside from some rain tomorrow and Friday there's no particularly interesting coming our way anytime soon. We should see a few clouds later this afternoon. Today's high will be in the mid 40s, which is several degrees warmer than normal.
A Foggy Day In New York Town
On average, January 23rd is half a degree warmer than January 22nd, so we're now on the upswing portion of the annual temperature cycle. In particular, today will be way warmer than yesterday. Thanks to southerly winds pushing warm, moist air this way the city should heat up to the lower 50s this afternoon. That humid air over the cold snow will produce a day long fog. Most of the snow cover will be gone by tomorrow as we'll have periods of rain this afternoon and evening.
Warm Finish To A Warm Year
A warm front is going to pass through the region today, bringing another wave of warm weather to close out the year. The southerly breeze behind the front will push today's high up to 50 degrees or thereabouts. There's a slight chance of rain this afternoon into tomorrow, but don't let that ruin your plans as there's really not all that much moisture associated with this storm.
Winter Solstice, Sans Winter Weather, Arrives Tonight
Fall is ending on a warm and rainy note. As expected a warm front has moved across the city this morning, bringing widespread clouds, fog, and light rain. The temperature is going to hover in the mid and upper 50s all day. Expect delays if you're flying somewhere today. There's plenty of fog all along the East Coast, the Great Plains and Rockies are getting socked with snow, and Los Angeles will be in for a round of Santa Ana winds. For your Saturnalian pleasure there's a slight chance of thunder and a good chance for gusty winds as a cold front arrives around the time of tonight's winter solstice.
Warm Streak Hangs On Despite Cold Front Passage
Yesterday was sixteen degrees warmer than normal, pushing November's average temperature to 52.0 degrees. That makes this the fifth warmest November on record. Today will again be warmer than normal, but not the ten degrees needed to displace 1975 as the fourth warmest November. The high and low temperatures for today will both be races. This afternoon's breezy high depends on how fast the sun can warm us up vs. how quickly cold air arrives as high pressure moves into the region. The high will be in the low or mid 50s. Without a sun to battle the temperature is going to plunge after sunset and we'll have a race against the clock to see how far the temperature drops below this morning's low of 46 degrees by midnight.
Near Record Highs As Warm Spell Continues
We couldn't help but notice yesterday that it isn't normal to be eating brunch outside on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Yesterday was the third straight Sunday with highs in the 60s and today is the fourth consecutive day with temperatures in the 60s. All that 60-degree weather is making this one of the warmest Novembers on record. A southwest breeze will ensure that today stays warm with a high easily reaching the mid 60s if not the record of 69 set in 1990.
Heavy Rain For The Heavy Travel Days
Puny humans, Mother Nature does not care about your Thanksgiving travel plans! In a fit of bad timing the worst weather this week by far will be Tuesday night and Wednesday, the busiest travel days of the year. A weak cold front passed through the city this morning and we'll be drying out during the day. Despite the increasing sun the temperature is going to hold steady in the lower 50s for much of the day.
Another Sunny And Warm Fall Day
It was the easiest of forecasts, it was the hardest of forecasts, it was the age of sun and warmth, it was the age of clouds and rain. Today's forecast is pretty easy. High pressure sitting off the coast will bring another warm and sunny day. The wind swinging around and coming off the ocean will keep today a bit cooler than yesterday. Look for a high around 65.
Marathon Of Sunny Skies Continues!
It's as if November is trying to make up for the cloudy, rainy weather we had in October. After a sun-filled weekend we've got us another couple days of clear skies ahead. High pressure sitting off the New Jersey coast means plenty of subsidence over the region and with subsiding air you get clear skies. The slight southwesterly flow will push today's high to near 60 degrees. Perfect weather to observe the 71st anniversary of a weather-related disaster. A bit of a windshift overnight will push Tuesday's high to the mid 60s.
Rain FINALLY Returns To New York!
Our long, nightmarish, stretch of fair weather is quickly coming to an end. A low pressure system, that is not a tropical system, is moving up the East Coast today and promises to bring rain as early as this afternoon and, more significantly, tonight. East winds ahead of the storm will keep the temperature in the lower sixties all day.
Summer Weather For A Fall Holiday
Yesterday's high of 84 degrees came within two degrees of tying the record high at Central Park. Record highs were set at JFK, LaGuardia, Islip, and Newark, but all of those stations have been taking observations for a much shorter time than the park so records there aren't as impressive. Although the ridge of high pressure that's produced all the sunshine and warmth is beginning to flatten, this afternoon will still see another summer-like day with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the region. A few thin cirrus clouds may build in over the course of the day but they won't much affect the temperature.
Extremely Pleasant Fall Weather For The Weekend
This may be the most boring, yet enjoyable, weather post we've ever written. A high pressure system at the surface and a ridge of high pressure aloft means that clear skies will rule today, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday and probably Tuesday. We should see a high in the upper 60s this afternoon which is just about normal for this time of year.
Summer Trying Its Best To Stick Around
What happened to all the rain? Well, we did get enough on Friday to make 2011 ninth rainiest year ever recorded. You can see why the weekend didn't turn out as rainy as expected on the satellite image of water vapor. That line of green, blue and orange off the coast is along the front that wound up just a bit further east than expected. The big swirly comma over the Midwest is the upper-level low that's been hanging out there for almost a week now. Most of the water vapor over the city is near the surface, hence the morning fog and sticky conditions. Once you get above the ground there's a big area of sinking air, and that subsidence is putting the kibosh on significant cloud development today. As a result we've got summer hanging on for one more day with a humid mix of sun and clouds and a high around 80.
August Starts Hot And Stormy
Last month was the fifth warmest July, and sixth warmest month, recorded in Central Park since weather observations began more than 140 years ago. Fourteen days reached at least 90 degrees, two reached 100, and those latter two were both record breakers. Five out of the seven months this year have been warmer than normal, including the last four months straight.
Sunny, Warm Weekend To Follow A Possibly Stormy Friday Night
All the weather action for the next few days is going to happen this afternoon and evening. A warm front is moving through the area right now and a cold front is not too far behind. Lots of humidity, unstable air and a push from the cold front will bring on the showers and thunderstorms. It won't be a widespread rainfall but where it does rain the storms could be severe. Today's high largely depends on how much the sky clears this afternoon. With plenty of sun we should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Dry Weather Today, Humidity Returns Tomorrow
In addition to being hot, this July has also been pretty dry. So far only half the normal rainfall has fallen in Central Park. Perhaps the lack of precipitation explains why we've seen almost literal panic in the streets a couple of times when it has started raining recently. There's no meteorological reason for panic today. High pressure is approaching from the west and that means a dry northwesterly breeze, sunny skies, and a near-normal high around 84 degrees.
Picture-Perfect Summer Weather This Weekend
Did you know that you can follow the local National Weather Service on Facebook? Did you know that the annual NWS Open House at Brookhaven National Lab is just three weeks away? Did you realize there's absolutely nothing happening on the local weather scene this weekend?
Sun, Sun, And More Sun On The Way
A cold front passed through the city very early this morning, sweeping away most of the humidity. The dew point temperature has been steadily dropping from its disgusting peak of 73 degrees at 3 a.m. and will continue to do so for the rest of the day. The lack of humidity and clear skies except for a few fair weather cumulus, means we should warm up nicely to the mid 80s this afternoon.
Summer Weather Arrives For Memorial Day Weekend
Could Mother Nature have timed the beginning of summer weather any better? Memorial Day weekend is upon us and so is the warm weather. There's not much to say about this weekend's forecast. High pressure is ever so slowly being pushed eastward into the Atlantic by a wheezing cold front. That's resulting in a southerly breeze and a warm, humid day. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The heat and humidity do mean there's a chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms from late this afternoon into this evening.
More Sun Than Rain On Saturday
Oooh, look at the satellite view of the swirly clouds above us. Actually, that's not quite accurate. The instrument that took this picture is designed to look at atmospheric water vapor. Lighter shades correspond to lots of water vapor and the darker areas to dry columns of air. The bullseye in the center is where the upper level low is located. One of the wetter bands looks like it is approaching the city as we write this, so be on the look out for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day today.
Rain Headed This Way, Should Clear By Weekend
You know all that rain, Poplar Bluff, Missouri's had 15 inches in four days, that's been falling in the Midwest this week? Well, it's starting to move eastward. The ridge of high pressure that's given us two 80-degree days this week has also been the atmospheric dam keeping the rain to our west. That ridge is breaking down and the humidity is already increasing. Today's high will be in the mid-70s and there's a slight chance of rain.
Hold On For A Thrilling Weather Rollercoaster Ride This Week
Where is this 70 degrees people were predicting for today? Soon, people, soon. The warm air is behind a warm front and that front is somewhere between the Big Apple and the City of Brotherly Love. Once that front gets here the temperature will quickly jump a good ten or fifteen degrees.
Springlike Weather On A Late Winter Day
Does anyone remember what happened on October 28th of last year? Didn't think so. That was the last time it reached 70 degrees in the city. Maybe it is time for the mercury to climb that high again! A low pressure system is centered in Quebec, way to our north. We'll be in the warm section of that system all day and that will allow the temperature to climb to near 70 this afternoon.
Sunny Skies Expected For St. Patrick's Day
Another day, another half-inch of rain. There's already been nearly five inches of rain this month. Six more inches and last year's record of 10.69 inches will be broken. That rain isn't going to happen today as warm and dry air is quickly moving this way. It should be cloudy for most of the day but don't be surprised if the sun appears late this afternoon. Today's high should reach the mid 50s.
A Slow March to Sunday Rain
We were watching Alien the other night and it was remarkable how slowly Ridley Scott lets the dread and scares build up compared to more recent movies. This weekend's weather probably won't feature any Gigeresque beasts but the story arc will be a slow, inexorable march to a Sunday evening denouement of rain. High pressure over northern Maine is bringing sunny skies to the city today. As the high moves eastward and we start getting a southerly breeze the temperature will rebound to the mid 40s this afternoon and the humidity will begin to increase.
Rainy End to February, Dry Start to March
Contrary to the old saying, March will arrive like a lamb rather than a lion tomorrow. The lamb may have that icky wet wool smell as the last day of February promises to be rather soggy. Two low pressure systems are bringing us rain today. The rain this morning was from a storm located where Lake Ontario empties into the St. Lawrence River. As that storm moves toward the Canadian Maritimes it will be followed by a low moving up through the Ohio Valley. Look for showers and possibly thunderstorms from now through midnight. Combine the rain with melting snow and saturated ground and there's a flood watch. Lots of convective churning of the atmosphere is expected with this system so there's also the possibility of hail later today. To add to the fun we're likely to see gusty winds this afternoon and evening. The city will be in the warm sector of the storm so look for highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Near Record High Today, Cooler and Windy Tomorrow
Yesterday turned out to be twenty degrees warmer than normal. It hasn't been that above normal since last April! Unusually warm weather will continue today. Both the Weather Service and AccuWeather think this afternoon's maximum temperature will approach the record high of 68 degrees set in 1981. If it is to get that warm, these morning clouds have got to disappear! The less sanguinary Weather Channel is calling for a high near 60. Either way that should be enough warmth to melt the remaining two inches of snow on the ground at the Central Park Zoo.

