Victor Cruz evading a tackle last week (AP)

Somehow, a three-point loss at home earlier this season and the ghosts of 2008 have combined to form a convincing argument that the Giants will beat Green Bay today. Sure, there's some evidence to believe that will happen, but there are also some very compelling reasons to expect Green Bay to cruise to victory—so that cheesecake and salsa better be on-hand.

Start with the fact that the Packers have won thirteen-straight at home. And don’t forget that during that win streak, they pulverized the Giants 45-17 in Week 16’s “must win” game last season. Add in their offense, ranked 3rd in total yards and 1st in total points, and Green Bay is a formidable opponent.

However, their weakness remains on defense. When the Giants played them in Week 13, they compiled 447 yards and 35 points. Since that game, the Green Bay defense has given up 400 yards in three-of-four games, and held the 4th opponent to “only” 357 yards. So, the opportunities will be there for Eli and the offense.

That returns the focus to the Giants’ defense and their ability to rattle Aaron Rodgers. The Giants did a decent job of that the last time they faced Green Bay and that was without Osi Umenyiora. But, two of Green Bay’s starting linemen missed that game and their return will give Rodgers some additional protection.

It’s fun to draw the parallels between 2008 and now, but they really aren’t relevant. What matters is that the Giants seem to be peaking at the right time, while the Packers have been excellent all year. If the Giants pass rush can disrupt Rodgers, then you have to like New York’s chances. If they can’t, the Giants’ secondary will be picked apart. Expect some successes, but also some big failures on defense. With a heavy heart, the pick is Green Bay by a touchdown.