walking morning shadows by Several seconds on Flickr

Autumn has arrived! Astronomically speaking at least. Meteorologically, summer and fall are having an awkward embrace with warm, humid tropical air doing its best to hold off an advancing cold front. Yesterday's high was 80 degrees. Will that be the last 80 degree day until next spring?

Looking at the weather maps this morning reminds us how humbling it can be to forecast the weather. The big picture is pretty clear but don't trust any detailed forecast beyond tomorrow morning.

Here's the deal. An upper level low is going to be meandering around the Upper Midwest for the next few days. On the ground there's a front stretching roughly from Montreal to New Orleans. See the problem? The winds going counter-clockwise around the low are blowing parallel to the front, so the front's got nothing to push it eastward. That's going to lead to plenty of clouds and round after round of showers or thunderstorms. Some of the rain today through tomorrow could be heavy so the Weather Service has issued a flood watch. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 70s and we'll get another (final?) shot at 80 on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late next week. Luckily, it does not look like we have to worry about satellites falling on our dainty heads.