Despite the prediction that the unflagging economic depression (what recession?) would cause crime in the United States to skyrocket, experts are "baffled" that the exact opposite has occurredexcept in New York City. The Times reports that the FBI's latest crime statistics for 2010 show that violent crime is "at the lowest rate in nearly 40 years," and the "odds of being murdered or robbed are now less than half of what they were in the early 1990s."
Regionally, the West, Midwest, and South combined for a total drop of 19.2%, while the Northeast only saw a drop of 0.4%. New York City in particular had 65 more murders in 2010 as it did in 2009, and rapes also increased by 24.4%, and "was the only city with more than a million people besides San Antonio with an increase in the total number of violent crimes."
Some experts believe that the jump in the city's violent crime rate is related to its massive drop in the past two decades, as if there was nowhere for it to go but up: "It's been so huge, there's always been this lingering question, how low could it go?" Others say that while police officials usually say these jumps relate to an increase in reporting, a criminal justice professor at John Jay says that's only a "partial explanation," the other reasons being "increased scrutiny of the integrity of the department's crime statistics."