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New York Could Lose Two House Seats

092710census.jpg Aaaand the Census results come home to roost. According to Politico, an early estimate of House reappointments based on this year's Census has Florida gaining two seats and New York losing two. Election Data Services president Kimball Brace says, "We were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II." Jokes about your Jewish grandparents aside, the shift could have big consequences for the state.

The redistricting could mean a return to Republican control of the state Senate, and a shift in geographical representation of the state. One of lost House seats would also likely come from the metropolitan area; estimates say areas with net population loses include Nassau County. The Census Bureau will announce the official results of the numeration in December, after which a formula will apportion the 435 house seats, and the congressional maps for the 2012 election will be drawn up.

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  • Let's hope they get rid of the NY-3 District. I can't stand Peter King (a loyal Bushie) and he is tough to remove.

  • John L

    This sucks!

    More power for backwards states.

  • NYCynic

    Great! +2 power points to idiot octogenarians who can't read a friggin' ballot.

  • Ed

    Immigration cuts both ways -high immigrant states gain population from immigrants coming in, but lose it as natives leave due to increased competition for land and jobs. I suspect immigration results in a net increase in the population if land is cheap, and a net decrease if land is expensive, but its a debatable issue.

    Since the 1980s, for what its worth, New York City has maintained its population level better than just about any city in the Northeast or Midwest. It just haven't had sunbelt levels of growth. But the high cost of living here could well cause another net exodus -though hopefully that should at least lower the cost of living to a more reasonable level.

  • Ed

    This is a long term trend. New York has lost two seats in every reapportionment since 1950, except for 1980 when it lost five (!) and 1990 when it lost three.

    And it will continue to lose two seats in every reapportionment until the state is represented by one at-large Congressman after 2140.

    Seriously, population in the South was somewhat depressed by segregation and one party rule in the decades after civil war, so growth there has outpaced the nation to recover from that. There is a long-term trend of population movement westward, and the invention of the air conditioner allowed more people to live in Texas and Florida than had been the case. Plus federal spending, particularly military spending, has been concentrated in the south and west. So this has been where the population growth has been.

    All of the northeast and midwestern states have been losing representation, but obviously we are not going to get to the point where 90% of the people in this country lives in California, Texas, and Florida so this trend will eventually bottom out. California seems to have already hit its peak representation.

    And it has become much too expensive to live here.

  • EastRiver

    Curious that you don't mention immigration.

  • EastRiver

    From skimming a few articles, in addition to the New York and Florida changes, Texas might pick up four seats. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington also could gain one seat each. Ohio also could lose two seats, while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are projected to lose one seat each.

  • Frustrating. The politics of population shift are tied to economics, but in such a backassward way.

  • TK

    FL, WA, TX and NV seem like logical choices to be getting more seats

  • Stevennnn

    No surprise. Who can really afford Nassau County to begin with?

  • ides_of_march

    Let me take a wild guess and say it's the productive citizens tired of being taxed to death that are leaving and the welfare recipients are staying.

  • jaycjay

    Please let me pick which two! And as an added bonus, can we also banish those representatives to Florida?

  • nicemarmot

    Not surprising. I know a ton of people who have left the area in the past few years. Younger people, including natives, have left because they can't find a job that pays well enough to afford to live here, or because they can't find a job at all. Older people are either moving someplace warm or chasing jobs themselves. They mostly went to the west coast or the Carolinas.

  • dept54321

    Really? Most of the young people I know are moving to the big Northeastern cities for work & school, with California being a notable exception. Expensive, yes, but take it from a native South Carolinian: you take a 50% salary cut anywhere south of Fredericksburg, and you're not going to be living in a charming beachfront house unless you arrive with plenty of money.

    Which brings me to my other point. The Boomers are all going South.

  • exnyer

    Bloomys master plan in motion.

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