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Author of Rival Cycling Study Doubts 236K Biker Estimate

Yesterday's annual report by Transportation Alternatives estimated that some 236,000 New Yorkers commute by bike every day; the number was an extrapolation of citywide cycling rates from the DOT's so-called screenline counts [pdf], taken at entrances to Manhattan below 50th Street. But this wasn't the only study of cycling in NYC released yesterday; a team of researchers working with Rutgers University professor John Pucher released their own study [pdf], which casts doubt on the rival report's extrapolation. And now there's a cycling study war brewing!

"All of us agree that there's been big increases in cycling," Professor Pucher tells Streetsblog. But "there's so many assumptions that you can question" in the TA estimate. Pucher does not care for this "screenline count" extrapolation one bit, because it's based on data on cyclists in downtown Manhattan and northwest Brooklyn, where bike commute rates are the highest (according to census data). So extrapolating from those DOT numbers may provide a highly distorted estimate, Pucher contends.

Pucher's report refrains from extrapolating, instead digging into the demographics of who rides bikes in NYC, how they get hurt, and examining the reasons for the cycling boom. The report uses a variety of data, including census data, which Pucher also finds inadequate, because it "understates total cycling." The bottom line in Streetsblog's thorough article is that NYC lacks the data to really understand how many cyclists are using its streets. "In Portland, every single year, they have travel surveys, broken down by mode, gender and age. Why don't we have that in New York City?" asks Pucher. The comments are now open for your "Go back to Oregon" remarks.

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Comments [rss]

  • unsunghiro

    i don't care about portland, i just wanna be able to ride my bike to work without worrying about cracking my skull :(

  • longacre

    I would love to bike to work, but I don't want to be all sweaty when I get there.

  • thefacts

    Hey, quit knocking Portland.

    Besides having more bike lanes and pedestrian malls than NYC, Portland also has more heroin addicts per capita. They know how to create a livable city.

  • xgeyiph772

    Must be all that rain. When I shoot-up heroin, I hate to drive in the rain, hence I live in NYC.

  • turkishjade

    This could have been a good question to put on the Census. Every city across America should want to know how many of it's citizens use transportation alternatives, no?

  • xgeyiph772

    Census Question #11: Do you live in NYC, but would rather be in Portland? Yes_ No X

  • xgeyiph772

    "In Portland, every single year, they have travel surveys, broken down by mode, gender and age. Why don't we have that in New York City?"

    Because, my pedaphiles, NEW YORK AIN'T PORTLAND! We haven't taken 400 years to create a unique, 24-hour, world-class city just to watch it turn into Portland. If I want to move to Oregon, I'll get in my evil little car and drive there. I don't want to move to Portland, and I don't want to see NYC turn into it either. Easy enough?

  • hunter.blatherer

    Wow, I just love someone from Staten Island telling me how to be a "real" New Yorker. In case you're curious (and I know you are) I only drink Bustelo coffee, at home. That way I can be alert when I get on my bike.

  • xgeyiph772

    So Staten Island doesn't have a voice in all this? Did they not count the number of bike riders getting off the ferry?

    And FYI, I choose to live on SI because it's low-key, less crowded and has lots of parks, beaches and, yes, bike lanes. What I don't do is try to remake Manhattan or Brooklyn into Staten Island. Like many Islanders, I spend A LOT of time working, playing and spending a fair amound of $$ in Manhattan, and thouroughly enjoy the hustle and bustle. I don't go to Manhattan and say "you know, it would be much better if it looked like Portland or Staten Island. We should close a bunch of streets and make them into pedestrian plazas." I accept and LIKE the differences between the boroughs and don't bitch and moan that they ain't Portland.

  • hunter.blatherer

    Well people have been biking in Manhattan since long before you were born, "boi." It ain't Portland and never will be.

  • SuburbanAntiChrist

    Hey JenChungsBaby, if you think that face tattoo is disturbing you should see the next photo in the lineup where the guy's face is bleeding after he biffs it.

    That's gonna get infected.

  • thefacts

    Transportation Alternative's "study" was "created" by its founder, the cycling fanatic, Charlie Komonoff, from meager DOT data that he EXTRAPOLATED to fit his group's agenda.

    This is the fox telling us how many chickens are left.

    Even if the data is marginally accurate, an increase of 50,000 riders in a city of 8,100,000 is an infintesmal increase of just 0.006% annually, statistically insignificant!

    Yet, Komanoff claimed yesterday it was an increase of 28% (based on his "data" from last year of 180,000 cyclists).

    Again: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

    Despite all the money and hoopla that TA and their bitch, Sadik-Khan, have spent on promoting their own agenda, most of NYers are not buying into it.

    Of course, Komanoff and his zealots at TA will manipulate data to fit their agenda - and their pockets. If cycling weren't showing to be increasing, they would lose all that funding and free advertising that the NYT and Gothamist falls for.

  • Manitoba

    Having seen how piss poor you are at math on some other posts, I couldn't help but comment on this one as well.

    Truly sad.

    First all, you say the increase is only 0.006%, but what I think you are calculating is the fraction of new riders with respect to the total population (50K/8.1 mil). Even if this were what TA was claiming to be reporting, the percentage would be 0.6% (you forgot to convert from a fraction to percent). I think what you are trying to calculate is what percentage of people (according to TA) ride bicycles. In this case, the percentage of NYers (again, according to TA's numbers) riding bicycles would be 2.8% (230K/8.1 mil * 100.0).

    However, since you clearly cannot understand basic math, you also did not understand that TA was claiming that there was a 28% increase in the number of cyclists (implied: with respect to the previous year's number of cyclists). This would be 50K/180K * 100 = 27.8%.

    So, while you may be correct that there numbers are made up (but you have not proof that they are not), you clearly are a moron otherwise.

  • whirlybird

    i mean really, to think that we here in NYC would want to use some very sensible means of estimating how many bikers our city has. friggin hippies.

  • JenChungsBaby

    I'm shocked -- SHOCKED -- that TA may have provided a highly distorted estimate of the number of bike commuters in NYC.

    I'm also shocked and somewhat disturbed by the facial tattoo on that bike jousting dork in the photo.

  • fosiacat

    go back to oregon.

    (am i doin it right?)

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