Economists Stick a Fork in New York, Declaring City Done

Remember the fun times camping out on line for concert tickets as teenager? Well, someday soon we might get to relive those precious moments, except this time for bread. The Times recently asked five economic experts to give their forecast for New York City's near future, and if you like a little doom to go with your gloom, you're going to love their predictions. (Spoiler: barrels with suspenders are poised to become the new Uggs.)

John Tepper Marlin, the former chief economist for the City Comptroller’s Office, is afraid the current crisis will be even worse than the Great Depression, because "the interconnectedness" of the world economy is making this crash reverberate more globally. As for New York, the city could be in for worse suffering than the financial crisis of the 1970s, because at least back then the state’s fiscal health was solid. This time, "if anything, the state is definitely in much worse shape."

But Charles Brecher, Director of Research at the Citizens Budget Commission, thinks the city will avoid utter annihilation because of the financial controls put in place in response to crisis in the '70s. He also cites Bloomberg's property tax increase in 2003 as a crucial source of revenue. However, Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow at The Manhattan Institute, fears that money could evaporate quickly once property owners start seeking property tax appeals and reassessments.

The one Pollyanna among these Debbie Downers is Carol O’Cleireacain, a finance commissioner in the Dinkins administration, which wasn't exactly synonymous with fiscal strength. She has faith that the economy may start to grow again in the fourth quarter of 2009, and contends that New York will always be "a magnet for talent: for smart, enterprising, ambitious, innovative people, not only from this country but from around the world. Everyone wants to be here." Unfortunately, being in our parents' basement is a lot cheaper (assuming they still have a home).

The one potential ray of light is that maybe these ambitious newcomers to NYC will now have a better shot at affording an apartment here. A long article in the Atlantic considers how the economic crash may impact various American cities, starting with New York, which could see its creative economy reenergized as the economy changes course. Reporter Richard Florida recalls a conversation "some years ago" with Jane Jacobs, who told him "When a place gets boring, even the rich people leave."

Contact the author of this article or email tips@gothamist.com with further questions, comments or tips.

By John Del Signore in News on February 16, 2009 3:41 PM

Comments [rss]

dirtonthe ryes

i may be alone on this feeling- but it's unnerving to keep reading articles on the impending economic doom while sitting here on my laptop- drinking coffee in the late afternoon just like every other fiscal year in the recent past- and wonder if there's anyone else wondering if any sort of preparedness is in order of any kind. and really like "WELL WHATS IT GOING TO BE LIKE- WHAT DO I DO!!" I can't seem to stir anyones emotions when i persist with these gloomy forecasts- i get a whole lot of "the economy will get better"

Shinobi Shaw

Almost all reliable and major economists are saying we are heading towards a "Greatest Depression" they are basing this on trend analysis. They are not joking when they say it will be worse then 70's New York.

Only the strong will survive.

Wza

I saved my disco shoes for times like this.

Clarice City

F-ing Octomom...

rdsizzle

You are quoting me but I dont really see how you are addressing my comments? In one sentence you are addressing several issues that go beyond the light discussions that occur on the message board of an urban blog....

broadwayblue29

Finally, a time where people spend money on their needs and truly appreciate life. That's what made NYC what it is today. Gimme a song, a pbr and a pretty girl and I'm rich. Summer '09: Summer of Realization.

imadick

I CANT WAIT FOR THE REAL NEW YORK TO COME BACK, WITH THE STABBINGS AND THE KILLINGS AND THE CRACK. THAT'LL SHOW THE GENTRIFIERS!!!! I HATE WHITE PEOPLE, EXCEPT FOR MY FRIENDS.

matty

lol NYC is so "real" and "authentic" again. *groan*

Alex

lol yah

JacqueMehoff

I can't wait either. only because I have stuff now that I didn't have then. and, I'm too old to run.

yep, I took some self-defense classes!

kcin122

rich people are boring.

so are old people

SikBug

Wouldn't this actually make NYC more interesting then?

Asphyxia8

Absolutely! But probably at a very steep price! Just not sure if I'm ready -- or young enough, even -- to really enjoy the seedy, underground nightlife and art scene that will re-emerge, or the crime/lack of public services that usually fosters/comes along with it.

Felix Hoenikker

Bush may have been the cherry on the sundae, but this has been long in the making.

Leon Freilich

HOMEGROWN

The looming global depression

That's gathering day by day

Is taking on the label

Made in the USA.

NannyState

"When a place gets boring, even the rich people leave."

I'm sure San Francisco can't wait for that bit of good cheer. So far, the place is just getting more and more boring with each millionaire khaki clad boomer.

longacre

Another plus: other US cities are in similarly dismal shape, and Europe even worse, so there's not a lot of incentive to move.

FelixtheCat & Christine Quinn'

Bush "History will judge me". Bush made us history.

ides_of_march

Considering the free markets based in NYC have basically been taken over by Washington, there's some truth in this.

The federal government just got a lot more powerful; way more powerful than the constitution allows it. This is a bad time for democracy.

rdsizzle

Agreed – capitalism has again shown some major flaws driven by greed. The government shouldn’t have to get involved but we have now gotten to the point where it must – the same way that the SEC was formed after the great depression to regulate an unruly stock market which had become overcome with corruption of greed. Ironically, the first to head the SEC was Joe Kennedy who was the king of insider trading and overall market corruption.

If the government had done a better job at regulating these bastards earlier, then we wouldn’t be facing this mess. How Bush and his economic advisors decided to turn a blind eye to futures, credit default swaps and a dishonest credit rating system is disturbing.

As for the media, they are now turning to fear mongering which obviously amplifies the problem. Yes, the economy needs to clean up and there will be many casualties but its not the end of the world…