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New York City's budget gap will be as much as $1.9 billion in fiscal 2009 and could possibly balloon to as much as $5 billion by 2011, according to a wholly depressing new report from City Comptroller (and mayoral hopeful) William Thompson Jr. Is it okay to just go back to bed and pretend this isn't happening? Certainly, but the report's disheartening data will still be there tomorrow morning: The recession could cost the city some $935 million in tax revenues next year, a figure that includes a $525 million shortfall in real estate-related taxes, a $345 million reduction in personal income and business taxes, and a $65 million loss in property taxes.
The annual report, titled The State of the City’s Economy and Finances (Or, Time To Move Back In With Your Parents), paints an even bleaker picture than Mayor Bloomberg's November budget proposal. In it, Thompson writes, "Waves of negative economic developments during 2008 have given way to a tsunami of financial anxiety and caused us to issue a more pessimistic forecast than was put forth by the mayor. As the economy erodes, the outlook for New York City’s fiscal future will continue to change."
And when it comes to jobs, "a negative trend has become unmistakable," as evinced by the above chart. According to Crain's, Thompson's analysis "comes less than two weeks after the comptroller predicted 170,000 job losses citywide as a result of the financial crisis." Ever the downer, he predicts the city’s unemployment rate will soon hit 7.4%. Here's a PDF of excerpts from the report. Alternatively, you could just watch The Return of the Box Surfing Cat.
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Another alarmist article by John Del Signore. I've got no problem with alarmist journalism, but why is the same guy writing so many 'the sky is falling' articles?
So, is it time to kill and eat our young yet?
The title of that chart can't possibly relate to its content. There is no information from the prior year.
Yeah - way to bring down the world economy, John. I hope you're happy with yourself now - you've ruined Christmas.
Woo, meaningless charts and fear-mongering.
Seriously, if you're going to write a piece like this can't you be a little more illustrative rather than just pulling scary quotes and decontextualized figures?
I think we're in this mess because people operated on sound bytes and not information.
"The title of that chart can't possibly relate to its content. There is no information from the prior year. "
seconded
Chart seems to indicate there are only 10,000 total jobs in New York City.
ROFL.
The chart is completely misleading.
What the fuck do you want? A smiley face pasted over the news? Do any of you really believe that the city is undergoing job growth? The reason these estimates are deliberately negative is to avoid nasty surprises that would shake confidence in the city much more than a dour forecast. Chances are, the problems will not be that severe but even if they are worse, this forecast lays out that context and thus,the psychological blows won't be so hard. The question to ask is what is the city doing about this? Raising taxes? There has to be deep cuts and no more taxes. That's what happens in a deep, protracted recession. Nobody survives unscathed.
What do I want? I want a chart that makes sense!
The chart makes sense, and the title tells you exactly what the data is. The bars are (Jan 08 total jobs) - (Jan 07 total jobs), and so on for each month.
Actually according to the chart, until OCT 2008 we were experiencing job growth (comparing month to month a year ago) ... though the growth was slowing and fast.
Thanks, Politburo--I was going to say the same and add that it's supposed to show the decline in job growth.
I have five sure-fire solutions for solving the budget mess:
1. Cut Medicaid.
2. Cut Medicaid.
3. Cut Medicaid.
4. Cut Medicaid.
5. Cut Medicaid.
Any questions?
if you read the title of the chart, it makes sense. Each bar represents the amount of jobs (and here comes the part I guess was ignored by the chart complainers) "compared to the same month in prior year" ...
In other words, there were about 50,000 more total jobs in NY in Jan 2008 as there were in Jan 2007... Now, in Oct 2008 there were only 10,000 MORE jobs as compared to 2007.
Granted it's not the most elegant chart, but it does make sense.
I have a question: Where do we bury the bodies that didn't get medical care with Medicaid?
Kent Brockman: Hordes of panicky people seem to be evacuating the town for some unknown reason. Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Professor: Yes I would, Kent.
The forgot the key words "more" or "new" jobs. Hence the confusion.
Thank you for the explanation of the chart.
Though as intuitive charts go, this is a big old FAIL.
I agree with Kiljoy. Epic Excel Fail. The chart seems to show that there were only about 10,000 jobs in New York in October, which is just crazy cakes. The title makes it all the more confusing.
The proper way to represent a decreasing rate of job growth would have been to show percentage growth over 2007 on the y-axis. Percentages are more meaningful than absolute numbers.
I have a question: Where do we bury the bodies that didn't get medical care with Medicaid
Right next to the tens of thousands of rotting corpses from California, which spends far less per capita on Medicaid than New York does. Oh wait ...
We're doomed! Dooomed!
Sorry..had a Simpsons moment.