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The New York Building Congress issued a report on NYC's construction outlook 2008-2010: This year, construction spending is "forecast to reach a record $33.8 billion, a 16 percent increase from 2007 when spending reached $29.1 billion. Spending is currently forecast to reach $33.4 billion in 2009 before easing to $26.2 billion in 2010."
More projected numbers: 35,00 residential units will be built this year, 20,285 next year, and 18,500 in 2010. Non residential-development (offices, hospitals, colleges, entertainment) will reach $10 billion in 2008, $11.5 billion in 2009, and $7.1 billion in 2010. Government projects (public schools, mass transit, bridges) may be $17 billion this year, $17.4 billion next, and $14.4 billion in 2010.
There's some doubt about the projections for 2009 and 2010; the NY Times notes that "Few if any real estate and construction executives believe that JPMorgan Chase will build a new tower downtown, at Greenwich and Cedar Streets." Also, Vornado has suspended plans for the MLB headquarters in Harlem and calls its office tower plans over the Port Authority Bus Terminal "dormant." And government agencies could scale back their plans.
The NYBC is concerned about construction worker employment possibly falling 23%. NYBC president Richard Anderson said, "Many of the new jobs have been filled by people from outside of the city, perhaps on a temporary basis. So in some cases, the dislocation will not be to the resident workforce. But in other cases it'll lead to unemployment. And that's a major concern.''
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Don't worry about the construction workers. Just you wait and see with the Atlantic Yards, the World Trade Center site, the West Side yards, Pier 40 and the rest of the HRP, Duane Reade and Chase bank retrofits, all these projects just getting ready to start. Overtime city for the unions.
Why wouldn't JP Morgan Chase build a new tower? They just got a #25 billion injection and they own Bear Stearns. They need that tower so Jamie Dimon can peer over Vikram Pandit with a smug expression on his face.
This is the 52 story tower going up on Amsterdam Avenue and 68th
Duh. When there will only be nine national banks in a few months, it's gonna be more difficult to get money on favorable terms.
I'm just waiting to see what happens to the properties like the old tenements, Stuy Town and the old NY Times building which are all on the brink of default. Will NYU and SVA step in an purchase them all?
It's a good thing Bloomberg gave these guys a 7 year tax abatement.
I remember when I bought my loft back in '73 the big thing back then was a J51 tax abatement. Due to a stupid ass lawyer we worked with we never applied for it. Meanwhile other friends of mine who bought lofts at the same time did. I envied them while our taxes went up and we were paying five times what they paying. When the J51 expired they all bailed out because of the massive increase in taxes. I see the same thing happening here.
If the city gave 1/10th the tax breaks to residential developments that do for commercial half the city could one where they live. I'd really like to see a ton of cash pumped into a Mitchell-Lama style program. The city could subsidize the construction with nice tax breaks, create jobs, and then do a lottery for anyone who makes less than 150k a year.
A construction decline? Woohoo! Fewer cranes.