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Early Addition
The Times went around fretfully asking experts and 'men on the street' whether the economic downturn is going to lead to higher crime. The consensus? Well, it couldn't hurt to get renter's insurance, and hide those iPod earbuds as you stroll home through your increasingly blighted neighborhood. While this isn't an exact science, the article does draw some persuasive parallels between today's meltdown and the crime explosion that followed the 1987 Wall Street crash, as well as the fiscal crisis of the 1970s that made New York a “hell on earth,” as former NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton puts it. (He blames the high crime in those days on the city's decision to lay of thousands of cops.) Today budget cuts have left the NYPD with about 4,000 fewer officers then in 2000, and the department has been asked to cut another 2.5% of its budget. Mya Bee, a filmmaker in Bed Stuy, predicts, "When you can’t use your credit cards, it will get worse. When that happens, all hell will break loose."
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...asking experts and men on the street... to be fair, are the experts women?
"When you can’t use your credit cards, it will get worse."
How about spending money that you have instead of money that you don't have? There are countries where people still shun credit cards more or less (even though they are starting to catch on). Its not impossible to live without a credit card, but you have to change the way you do business.
The demographics of NYC have changed significantly since 1987.
time to carry my expandable baton in my bag.
If you live off of your credit card, you deserve what you get when the credit disappears.
I seem to remember a recent article about Koch and bloomy talking and Bloomberg saying that cutting cops sanitation and like services is a mistake he won't repeat.
Stuff about keeping it a safe place and avoiding a decline in tax base.
Or maybe I dreamt it.
At least my 2nd ammend rights let me... oh wait not in NYC.
in response to the question headline: one can only hope.
bring on the class war.
finally, the long awaited come back from the late 70s and early 80s that hipsters foresaw before any of us.
Bring the gritty edge back to NY like golden days.
Finally, an excuse to wear my pleather Warriors vest.
Street muggings, chain and purse snatchings, groups of dark skinned guys going through crowded rush hour subway cars "bumping" into people and pick-pocketing them, gangs everywhere robbing people for walkmens, coats, sneakers and whatever else they can get. Ahh, the good old days.
Two things could be meant by the credit card comment.
1) You can't support local businesses so they close creating streets with long lines of shuttered storefronts. Not good for any neighborhood. People typically put larger purchases (appliances, clothes for the school year, books for college, etc) on their cards so you're going to see a lot of businesses not selling absolute essentials get screwed.
2) No credit cards means you always need to carry cash which means everyone is worth mugging.
yes, finally maybe there will be a halt of little dog walking ipod wearing condo inhabiting yupster douchebags moving into my neighborhood, yesss
I think that Ms. Bee's point is that everyone will be walking around with cash in their pockets.
Or that people only can exist financially by the credit lines they are given (think cash advances) without that, people will throw a fit.
People are really clueless, NYC will never go back to the 70's and 80's.
The War on Drugs does not benefit the ELITE anymore, now it's the War on Terror.
If riots break out when the collapse comes, the government will have Martial Law.
"Today budget cuts have left the NYPD with about 4,000 fewer officers then in 2000, and the department has been asked to cut another 2.5% of its budget."
statements like this don't help, they only increase criminal confidence.
thank god I'm tall and muscular. I feel sorry for all the short and fat sheep waiting to be pounced on. Did you guys know that 90% of all victims of violent muggings were under 5'9"?
If credit cards were used how they ware supposed to be used, people wouldn't be spending over their limits: eg. I buy a living room set and a new bike and use a credit card because I do not carry that much cash around, but I have the money to pay for the living room set and bike. When I get home I then transfer that money (electric check) to my credit card agancy. Done. Paid. No Debt.
But no, people are fucking retards and spend until they're maxxed out—either knowing they can't pay it off or they just do not give a shit—a little of both.
Quick, someone please round up the hipsters in Bed Stuy, Bushwick and SoBro before they get slaughtered!
Having lived in this city in 70s and 80s I have too say those of you who long for the so called good old days of crime and trash etc are bat shit crazy.
While I agree that there are downsides to all this gentrification or development or whatever clean streets and low crime rates aren't among them.
And it isn't just city agencies like cops and sanitation that will be weakened. Take The Doe Fund. Their support comes from people and companies that are going to be a lot less giving.
Goldman Sachs & Co, Wachovia, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Credit Suisse the list is long.
Wait till someone puts a knife or gun in your face and get back to me.
I wonder what all the people who bought condos in "up and coming" neighborhoods are gonna do. Better get an alarm system and a gun.
I can't wait,
now I just jinxed myself. over 40 years in this city and never been mugged.
Quick, someone please round up the hipsters in Bed Stuy, Bushwick and SoBro before they get slaughtered!
If things really get bad, hipsters will run out on their own and they won't stop until they reach Ohio.
I hate when people say SoBro.
crime is sooooo "Real" and "authentic"
'til your ass get shot!
or raped, murdered, mugged, robbed, dismembered, etc...etc...etc...
then the hipsters who want this "gritty" new york back put up flyers in williamsburg asking for donations to pay their intensive care unit bills. jen carlson will be the first to cover the story.
Love 'em or hate 'em, we're gonna have to raise policeman's salaries and recruit even more.
There's still plenty of "grit" in this city, if you look for it. It's not hard to find at all. Just hope that the "grit" doesn't come looking for you in your non-gritty neighborhood.
And "grit" is code for...
Dark people.
I don't think it'll get particularly worse, it'll just become a whole hell of a lot quieter, as in less people out and about at all times.
Remember when the lights went out in August of '03 and all hell broke loose in the City?
Right - it din't happen.
The credit card thing doesn't make sense to me as far as carrying cash. We can still have debit cards, no?
Warriors.....come out to play-ayyyyyyy!
i find it telling that all the idiots who long for the days of a gritty nyc are noticeably absent from every violent crime post on gothamist.
The above comment is right, the demographics of NYC have changed since 1987. NYC today has more immigrants and minorities than ever before; 1910 is the last time so many immigrants have lived in this city.
So, judging on that, how do you think things will play out of things get real bad this time, and all those finance-driven entry-level working class jobs go kaput?
So, I guess the differences are ... today we have less cops, less middle class residents, less solid industry jobs, more working poor and working class immigrants and minorities, and the jobs they feed their family with were/are driven by 1) tourism and 2) financial industry wealth spillover. Not to mention the charities and neighborhood infrastructure banks and financial institutions funded, etc. etc.
Oh yeah, if by "demographic change" you meant NYC is more white than in 1987, you are so off the mark it's crazy. You probably just mean "the wealthy Manhattan neighborhood I live in". NYC has never been this non-white; at least, not since the before the Dutch arrived.
"If you live off of your credit card, you deserve what you get when the credit disappears."
rdc: You're sort of missing the point. When the credit disappears and the shit hits the fan, it's going to be the irresponsible preying on the responsible. Do we deserve what we get?
what do you want us to say in the violent crime posts? feed on racism maybe?
that's why I dance my jig....
NYC crashed in the 70's in part because of middle class flight to the suburbs. That won't happen again. We all know the suburbs are not safe from drugs, gangs, crime and decay. The mortgage crisis created new suburban slums and local government financial meltdowns. They aren't the paradise/escape route they use to be.
Does this mean we should take our investments out of Google and put them into Smith & Wesson?
Crime may go up a bit, but we're not going to see NYC change to the way it was in the 80s. NYC is more gentrified than ever. Are hipsters going to mug other hipsters so they can buy their leggings at American Apparel?
Hi Preshal.
if the city becomes cheap it doesnt mean its going to shit. 8 years ago it was much cheaper and still a safe place to live.
NYC is more gentrified than ever.
Actually, NYC is more diversified than ever. Most people in the city are neither hipsters nor are they white.
If the NYPD had bothered to address white-collar crimes, this whole situation might not have happened. Keep cutting their budgets: leave the bicycle rider shoving to qualified civilians.
As far as my eye can/has see/seen, economic downturns are quickly followed by a rise in crime, especially petty crimes. That said, I doubt (hope) it won't get that bad.
Also, why bother replying to the "welcome back 80s ny" comments. That sort of stuff can only come from people who don't have a grip on reality, and don't seem to realize when to keep their sarcastic comments to themselves.
@ TN, just so you're aware in the future, Gentrification has less to do with race than money.
gentrify |ˈjentrəˌfī|
verb ( -fies, -fied) [ trans. ]
renovate and improve (esp. a house or district) so that it conforms to middle-class taste.
• [usu. as adj. ] ( gentrified) make (someone or their way of life) more refined or dignified.
And yes, NYC is more gentrified than ever.
the city just had another gun buyback event, that makes three so far.
so, no it won't be back to the bad old days, the demographics had changed and there may be a learning curve for transplants, nothing major will happen.
I actually disappointed that this trail stops around almost 6 months ago. The pending crisis has not begun but will be severe and preparation needs to begin to ensure the safety and security of life and property. It is just a matter of time when the credit crunch will affect the ability of supermarkets to provide food to 9 million people. Credit cards may or may not work. There a log of people who believe that they have axes to grind. Crime will go through the roof as the formally civilized may no longer be. Pushin robberies and street crime will be rampant and NYPD will ultimately be no longer able to stop the insanity. Study the history of collapsed civilizations and states. Start with Dmitry Orlov's analysis of the the soviet collapse. He does a good job of not fear mongering but in describing what is likely to happen where you can draw the necessary conclusions. For more information check out blog "the curious tea leaf" at oracle66.wordpress.com. Also, please share an ideas on Yahoo groups "survivingNYC@yahoogroups.com"
I'm very disappointed that this trail stopped in October. A post economic collapse in NYC is likely to be catastrophic on so many levels. It is also disheartening to hear that the city just had another gun by back. An unarmed populace is a defenseless populace. During a time of economic chaos self defense is a god given right. What people fail to realize is that as the economy continues to go south, the present middle class, myself included, is likely to be the future poor. The organization that I work for had net assets of 9B dollars,now it has a little over 6B. As the market continues to go down hill I may find myself out on the street unable to pay my mortgage. I have 2 tenents in other pieces of properties, if they become unsolvent, I lose those properties as well. As more and more civilized folks start losing their properties they will become less civilized. Once the credit situation hits the grocery stores its all over. To learn more check out "the curious tea leaf" at www.oracle66.wordpress.com I have started a Surviving NYC Group forum at SurvivingNYC@yahoogroups.org. Looking for ideas about survival.