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Sometimes the forecast doesn't quite work out as expected. More accurately, sometimes the forecast sucks. Of the big three major forecast outfits, AccuWeather started the "big storm" drumbeat Friday night, the Weather Service joined in yesterday, while the Weather Channel, to its credit, never really got on the bandwagon. Gothamist had to laugh early this morning when an AccuWeather forecaster on 880 WCBS blamed the storm for "fizzling out" rather than accept responsiblity for a bad forecast. Way to be a mensch! The storm itself didn't fizzle out, either, dude. Eastern Massachussetts and points northward are getting whomped with up to ten inches of snow today.
We've mentioned it in previous winters, but we'll say it again today, predicting accurate snowfall amounts for these coastal storms is notoriously difficult. A costal storm has to enter into a delicate pas de deux of timing and location in order for the snow to fall. Cold air needs to arrive near the ground behind the storm just as warm, moist air gets wrapped around the center of the low. When that works out you can get dumped on. If the cold air doesn't arrive, all you get is a lousy 0.45 inches of rain falling on Belvedere Castle. Whenever you hear a forecast for a nor'easter that doesn't communicate the uncertainty, change the channel.
If it is any consolation there may be a few snow flurries tonight and tomorrow. No accumulation is expected. The sun returns on Wednesday but will likely depart on Thursday. Temperatures should be close to 40 for afternoon highs and 30 for morning lows - slightly above average, through Friday. From this vantage point it looks like the holiday weekend will be chilly.
This afternoon's snowfall forecast map of the northeast from Weather.com.
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"A costal storm has to enter into a delicate pas de deux of timing and location in order for the snow to fall."
Best weather-related sentence I've read in a long time—if not ever.
880's Craig Allen said this AM the snow forecast was just silly and should never have been made. 20/20 hindsight.
Snow is the most difficult forecast for meteorogists because a few miles or degrees makes all the difference.
I believe forecasters are encouraged to err on the side of big snow because nobody wants to be the one who forecast rain, and then we got socked.
This way, the weatherjokers can chuckle along with the anchors... 'uh, oh, we missed, sorry!' instead of grim-faced apologies.
www.forgotten-ny.com
This reminds me of the tale of John Bolaris and the Storm of the Century. The urban legend is that the former WCBS meteorologist was run out of Philadelphia because he claimed a blizzard was on its way and it never hit. The truth is, oddly enough revealed in an interview by Bolaris (now with the Fox owned station in Philadelphia) with our sister site Phillyist that went up of all days today, that reveals a similar follow the leader scenario with that storm and gives some insight in the world of forecasting snowstorms and television weather craziness.
Hello Humans You are not nor will you ever be in control. get over it! Stop egotistically thinking you can predict events and permanize places of intrest. all will befall of something eventually.
I watched the radar on weather.com and i knew it wasn't going to hit. The cold air wasn't pushing the pink line of snow goodness north enough in time to get me out of going to work on Monday.
I was so hoping we'd get the day off too.