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That just happened! Senator Barack Obama won the Democratic Iowa Caucus with at least 37% of the vote (projections are changing). Former Senator John Edwards got 30% of the vote while Senator Hillary Clinton got 29%. The media is playing this as a huge failure for the Senator from New York, given how powerful the Clinton machine has seemed. Also stunning: There were 82% more Democratic voters in this year's caucus compared with 2004, which pundits suggest means Iowa, which President Bush won in 2004, is certainly in play for the Democrats.
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckbee handily won the Republican caucus, with 34% of the vote. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who outspent Huckabee by tens of millions, conceded with 25%; Senator John McCain and former Senator (and Law & Order DA) Fred Thompson tied for third place with 13%. (Former mayor Rudy Giuliani, who didn't focus much attention in Iowa, got 4% - after Ron Paul's 10%!) During his victory speech, Huckabee said he wasn't sure if he could love a state as much as he loved his home state of Arkansas, but tonight, "I love Iowa a whole lot." Politics aside, his public speaking is great and he's very engaging. It also seems that voters responded to Huckabee's attacks on Romney's relatively excessive spending and were repelled by Romney's negative ads.
During her concession speech, Clinton thanked the crowd and acknowledged it was a great night for Democrats, given the turnout, and emphasized that it showed the desire for a Democratic president. She then said she's ready for New Hampshire. And seen on the dais, besides former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former President Bill Clinton: NY Lieutenant Governor David Patterson.
According to NBC polls, 57% of the voters were women - and Obama got most of the female vote (35% to Clinton's 30%). Tom Brokaw said that when he spoke to female voters in Iowa, many said they weren't sure Hillary could win and they wanted (a Democrat) to win. He added that it's unclear if she'll be able to be a Comeback Kid like her husband, who lost Iowa but went onto get second at New Hampshire and the presidency in 1992. Another interesting note: 60% of voters under 25 voted for Obama; 45% of voters over 65 voted Clinton. And of the Democratic voters who said they wanted changed, 50% voted for Obama.
During Obama's victory speech, he told his audience, "You have done what the cynics said we couldn't do. You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008. In lines that stretched around schools and churches... Republicans and Democrats...you have said we are one nation, we are one people, and our time for change has come." He also promised to end the war in Iraq and bring home the troops and said, "9/11 is not a way to scare up votes, but a challenge that should unite America and the world against the common threats of the 21st century."
What these results mean so far in terms of the election: For the Republicans, Huckabee gets at least 22 delegates (who will then nominate a candidate at the Republican Convention), with 15 to be allocated. On the Democratic side, Obama gets 13 delegates, Clinton and Edwards get 10 each, and 10 still need to be allocated. Here's an FAQ on the Iowa caucuses.
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Go Iowa! And Clinton served 3rd? Could the dynasty be crumbling at last?
Great photo of Obama, too.
i don't care what guiliani says-- when ron paul gets three times more votes than you, that's a serious problem.
The Sun had an interesting article today about the nature of the Iowa vote as a possible disadvantage to Clinton. Apparently Iowa caucus voters have to pick a second-choice candidate and if no one person reaches a 15% threshold in an individual precinct, weight gets thrown to the most popular second choice. Edwards was heavily outpolling Clinton as a runner up. I don't know what effect that had on the overall results--I'm sure someone will have a precinct-by-precinct analysis in coming days--but it seemed to be another quirky anomaly of electoral politics.
who the fuck gives a shit? America would never vote for obama. This is just a cocktease! at the end of the day they'll vote with their heart. Their prejudiced hearts.
Considering Iowa is 95% white, I would say it was a rather impressive win. And his speech tonight - I'm sure would put a tear in ol' Bill's eye...
"He added that it's unclear if she'll be able to be a Comeback Kid like her husband, who lost Iowa but went onto win New Hampshire and the presidency in 2000."
Hilary Clinton is married to George W Bush in an alternate universe where new hampshire is a red state?
i agree with freddy-- if obama can get white, fundamentalist-leaning midwestern voters to go for him, he might have a shot in some other states.
what still amazes me is how completely undecided the field is-- you've got at least three candidates on both sides who could conceivably come out on top after super-tuesday. that's going to make for an interesting month of coverage.
Jake is showing his east coast ignorance of the Midwest by trying to paint the entire state of Iowa as fundamentalist. Wake up.
baby hitler! what a horrible NAME!
I hate hilary as much as the next person, but seriously, edwards? dear john edwards, go home and stop fucking with the real election. you will never be elected.
Baby hitler is not just a horrible name that he made for himself-- it's a horrible mindset. GObama!
"He added that it's unclear if she'll be able to be a Comeback Kid like her husband, who lost Iowa but went onto win New Hampshire and the presidency in 2000."
I'm guessing that you meant 1992, but Bill Clinton didn't actually come in first in New Hampshire that year. He was called the 'comeback kid' because he was able to spin a stronger-than-expected second place showing in NH (losing to Tsongas) into a victory, which set the stage for later primary wins.
Babyhitler for prez!
The Obama and Huckabee wins in Iowa don't mean anything. Their wins are the product regional politics. If the caucus was in the South Edwards would have won. In the North East Clinton. Etc etc. Plus there is still a lot of time and money left for campaigning.
No mention of "King of Fist-Chins" Chuck Norris standing behind Huckabee on the dais? That was some good television!
Jake, respectfully, you’re wildly misrepresenting (or misinterpreting) Iowan cultural demographics. Never mind that the fundamentalist christian vote is a non issue in the Democratic caucuses and primaries this year (or any other year in the foreseeable future), fundamentalism is a practically a non issue altogether for the northern half of the state, as the seed immigration for that half followed northern trends. Catholics, Lutherans, Presbyterians and Episcopalians don’t generally go fundy in the north. In the southern half of the state you might have a point, but those Iowans were not at the democratic caucuses anyway.
A far more telling and interesting statistic from last night was that the turnout for Democratic caucuses was double that of the Republican caucuses. In Iowa, as I suspect we’ll see in the rest of the nation, the democrats are far more fired up this year than the republicans. That’s bad news for Hillary in the primaries, and even worse news for the republican in the general election.
Ron Paul.
Obama looks like he is going to kick somebody's ass in that picture IMO.
Go Fred.
The biggest problem with the field of candidates is that you wouldn't want them to be dog catcher of East Bumblefuck, Flyover Country let alone President of the United States.
Watching Obama on TV last night, it seemed if he was doing a JFK impression. It came off as phony.
We need someone who isn't a politician to become president (and for that matter in every elected office) - Wesley Autrey, David Letterman, anyone!
Ron Paul is genuine. He's a politician, but he is in it to bring about change and enforce the constitution and give people back their rights.
i love how the media and people jump to all these conclusions of how these candidates will do in a general election based on literally a few thousand votes by mostly activist voters who partake in primaries. its laughable to imply these results would look anything like a national result.
Gossipgirl:
I'm not sure how you feel about this but I just learned Ron Paul was extremely pro-life. My conceptual support for him just turned into active distaste.
I'm not sure how to feel: I'm happy for Clinton's loss but terrified of Huckabee's win. I really hope Obama can win it.
Huckabee is a fright for sure! But I don't think he has staying momentum. No money, no organization, and no foreign policy advisor.
Really, what I can't believe is how the press claims that last night's victory for Obama and Huckabee represents that America wants a change. Huckabee, a change?!
Mike D: I know he's pro-life (he was after all an OB-GYN). But he's also a libertarin which typically means whether you are pro-life or pro-choice you believe in states rights. From his web-site:
I am also the prime sponsor of HR 300, which would negate the effect of Roe v Wade by removing the ability of federal courts to interfere with state legislation to protect life. This is a practical, direct approach to ending federal court tyranny which threatens our constitutional republic and has caused the deaths of 45 million of the unborn.
I guess I'm just uncomfortable with someone who is ostensibly for "small government" regulating morality.
"Mike D: I know he's pro-life (he was after all an OB-GYN)."
Huh? Many OB-GYNs are pro-choice.. who do you think is performing the procedures?
HR 300 is a dismantling of the equal protection clause. Have you read it?
"The Supreme Court of the United States and each Federal court shall not adjudicate any claim involving the laws, regulations, or policies of any State or unit of local government relating to the free exercise or establishment of religion; any claim based upon the right of privacy, including any such claim related to any issue of sexual practices, orientation, or reproduction; or any claim based upon equal protection of the laws to the extent such claim is based upon the right to marry without regard to sex or sexual orientation."
States rights is just another code word for legal discrimination.
No offense Mike but if you're going to make your Presidential vote decision based on abortion when we live in a world of terrorism, spiraling trade deficits, a broken health care system, unfunded liabilities in the form of Social Security and Medicare, etc. then frankly I would just prefer it if you didn't vote. When the city is in flames from food riots and the dollar will buy one Euro cent you can congratulate yourself that abortion is still legal. Wooh!
I'm sorry, I mean to say he DELIVERED BABIES.
Iowa is not as hick as you all think it is. In fact most of the upper midwest is rather progressive and liberal. Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota are all consistently Democratic and have some of the most progressive politics in the nation. Barack Obama is representative of this fact.
Well then how did Huckabee fool Iowa?
EastRiver: I'm glad to see you're willing to sacrifice 51% of the population's rights to choose a candidate who MIGHT, just MIGHT be a good leader.
There are candidates who are pro-choice and also might be good leaders, so luckily I don't have to choose solely based on abortion politics.
There are doctors who preform abortions AND deliver babies. It's not an either/or thing.
don't forget the hands that went up when the candidates were asked if they believed in Creationism.
can someone explain what a caucus is besides that is sounds like Cock and ass together? What's the difference between that and a primary?
the term caucus was first used to confuse those too dumb to use google
babyhitler = lowclass